Before the US midterm elections: The scenario that could reignite the conflict with Iran
World press headlines: American tourists are starting to return to Israel, an Israeli advocacy campaign may influence ChatGPT's answers, and global assessments suggest that the US and Iran could fight again even before the midterm elections. Globes presents a daily short review of interesting news from the global media about Israel.
About the world press headlines
Against the backdrop of the constantly evolving security situation, the lens of the global media reveals unique perspectives on what is happening in the country. From analyses by international experts and interpretations from a different angle to small stories from Israel that disappear from view - every day we will present you with a short daily review of what is written in the global media about Israel, to try and decipher how things from here look overseas.
The articles we present in the section are taken from major newspapers around the world and do not necessarily reflect the worldview of Globes.
1. Is an Israeli advocacy campaign trying to influence ChatGPT?
According to a report in Politico, Israel is promoting a new advocacy campaign in the US that may also influence how artificial intelligence models like ChatGPT answer questions regarding Gaza and the IDF. The report is based on documents submitted last week to the US Department of Justice under the Foreign Agents Registration Act.
According to the report, the French PR firm Havas Media, which manages a significant portion of the Israeli influence activity registered in the US, is behind an entity called the "Hanover Institute for Public Policy". Through its subcontractor, the advertising agency Piro, $100,000 was invested in a campaign that includes the creation and distribution of content about Israel backed, according to the company, by sources and data.
On the institute's website, there are dozens of "data reports" without author names, which deal with questions like "Is the IDF the most moral army in the world?" and "Is there a policy of starvation in Gaza?". According to Politico, the phrasing and structure of the content indicate that they may also be intended to feed language models with information about Israel.
Politico conducted a check and found that ChatGPT and Perplexity cited the institute's materials in answers to neutral questions on topics related to Gaza, anti-Zionism, and antisemitism.
At the bottom of the institute's website, there is a disclosure that the content is distributed by Piro for Havas Media Germany, which operates on behalf of the Israeli National Information Directorate (LAPAM). According to the report, technical signs that were checked also point to the involvement of the American AI company Res, which offers services designed to help clients appear in the recommendations of artificial intelligence models.
This is not the first time that Israeli advocacy activity has included explicit reference to AI models. Last year, Havas reported that it had hired the company Clock Tower X of former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale as part of a $46.5 million campaign. The FARA documents of that same campaign also included "creation of websites and content" designed to influence how GPT models frame various topics.
Co-founder of Piro, Daniel Rosenberg, told Politico that the company was hired by the State of Israel to "introduce accurate and source-based facts into the public space and fight misinformation about Israel using verifiable information". However, Politico emphasizes that unlike Parscale's campaign, the documents concerning Piro do not explicitly state that influencing language models is one of the campaign's goals.
2. Before the midterm elections: Will the US and Israel attack Iran again?
The US and Iran could reach another round of fighting even before the midterm elections in November, with the beginning of October emerging as a particularly sensitive point in time - this is estimated by Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill, a researcher of international relations and a former officer in the Canadian Army, in an article published on the Modern Diplomacy website.
According to the analysis, Iran may have an interest in escalating the conflict in the weeks before the US elections. Spencer-Churchill argues that Iranian pressure in the Strait of Hormuz, which leads, among other things, to a rise in energy prices, may harm the Republicans at the ballot box. In addition, Iran's missile and drone capabilities have been significantly damaged in the recent rounds of fighting, so its ability to conduct a high-intensity attack is limited in time. Hence, he estimates that Tehran may prefer to act during October, close enough to the elections so that the consequences of the conflict are also felt in the American political arena.
However, Washington, according to estimates, may also have an interest in preempting the campaign. Spencer-Churchill presents several options facing the Trump administration - from an immediate attack, through avoiding a preemptive strike, to action in early October that will damage Iranian capabilities in advance. The latter option, in his estimation, may be the most worthwhile for the administration.
Thus, a situation may arise where the fear of each side regarding the move of the other actually brings the next conflict closer, and the possibility that the US and Iran will reach another clash even before the Americans go to the polls in November is a scenario that must be taken into account.
3. American tourists are returning to Israel, but the tourism industry is still far from recovery
After more than two years of war and security upheavals, American tourists are starting to return to the country - and are providing the first sign of recovery in the tourism industry that has been severely damaged since October 7. This is reported by the Wall Street Journal.
According to data from the Ministry of Tourism cited in the newspaper, 32.5 thousand Americans arrived in Israel in June - a jump of 73% compared to the same month last year, when Israel's skies were closed for nearly two weeks due to the war with Iran. In July, 36.6 thousand visitors arrived from the US, an increase of 15% compared to last year and about a third of all tourists who entered Israel that month.
The relative improvement comes after particularly difficult years for the industry. The coronavirus pandemic first hit inbound tourism, and after it came the war in Gaza and the conflicts with Iran. In the first half of the year, foreign tourists spent only about $700 million in Israel, compared to revenues of about $3 billion for the entire last year. The number of visitors this year is even expected, excluding the coronavirus years, to be the lowest in half a century.
One of the main barriers to the return of Americans is precisely the supply of flights. American airlines are not expected to resume flights to Israel before the fall at the earliest, and therefore many passengers are forced to arrive via intermediate destinations in Europe.
The newspaper spoke with several American tourists who arrived in Israel despite the concerns. Some told of flight cancellations, long journeys, and decisions made only after the security situation seemed more stable. One family from Boston, for example, finally arrived for a bar mitzvah trip that had been postponed for two years. "I thought we should come now, because you just can't know," the mother said.
