Houthis Increase Pressure: Saudi Arabia Shifts Oil Export Routes
Maritime exports of Saudi oil from the Red Sea are becoming increasingly difficult to track as tankers disable their AIS tracking systems due to fears of Houthi attacks. This practice, known as 'dark sailing,' complicates market assessments of energy supply volumes.
Maritime exports of Saudi oil from the Red Sea are becoming increasingly difficult to track as tankers have begun disabling their identification and tracking systems due to fears of Houthi attacks in Yemen. According to shipping tracking companies, all tankers that recently loaded oil at the Saudi port of Yanbu operated without continuous location signal transmission—a situation known in the industry as 'dark sailing.' This development makes it difficult for the market to estimate the actual volume of Saudi oil flowing through the Red Sea and the extent to which the Houthi threat is disrupting energy supplies, as reported today by Reuters.
Large commercial vessels typically transmit their location via the Automatic Identification System (AIS). This system allows shipping companies, insurers, and commodity traders to monitor vessel movements. However, in areas where a ship could become a target, this information becomes a liability. By disabling AIS, a tanker effectively becomes 'invisible' to public and commercial tracking systems.
The Challenge of 'Dark Sailing'
While the tanker does not physically disappear, tracking it becomes significantly harder. George Morris, an analyst at Vortexa, told Reuters: 'Last week, all loadings in Yanbu were carried out in the dark. At the moment, we do not see any loading with an active AIS system.' Kpler analyst Nuwi Kin Su estimated that about 70% of oil loadings at ports on Saudi Arabia's west coast have been conducted without continuous tracking in recent weeks.
Experts disagree on the exact volume of oil leaving Saudi Arabia. For the week beginning August 3, Vortexa estimated loadings at Yanbu at 2.38 million barrels per day, while Kpler estimated a drop to 1.78 million, and AXSMarine suggested an increase to 850,000 barrels per day. These discrepancies highlight the difficulty of monitoring oil movements in the region.
Red Sea Security Risks
Since the outbreak of the regional war, the Houthis have turned shipping lanes near Yemen into a theater of conflict. On July 20, they declared a 'maritime blockade' against Saudi Arabia. On August 9, Reuters reported that the Houthis attacked an Aramco refinery in Jizan using a drone.
The Red Sea connects to the Indian Ocean via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world's most critical shipping lanes. Any route change increases costs. Saudi Arabia has increasingly utilized northern routes, including the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline in Egypt. Loadings at Sidi Kerir reached a record 2.17 million barrels per day, with approximately 90% consisting of Saudi oil, as the kingdom seeks alternative paths to maintain market flow.
In late July, the maritime risk zone defined by the London shipping insurance market was expanded. War risk insurance premiums at Saudi ports like Jeddah and Yanbu jumped from 0.25% to 1% of a ship's value, while insurance for sailing in the southern Red Sea increased to 1–2%.
