Goldman Sachs: Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to about two-thirds of pre-war levels

Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to about two-thirds of pre-war levels, thereby limiting the impact of the war with Iran on global crude oil prices, according to Goldman Sachs. Total exports of crude oil and petroleum products from the region have risen to 15–16 million barrels per day, partly due to an increase in the volume of transit through the Strait of Hormuz, analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a memo.

According to them, this is still a decrease of 7–8 million barrels per day compared to levels before the outbreak of the conflict, but the export volume is significantly higher than the low of 5–6 million barrels per day recorded in March. The analysts noted that the volume of oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz alone is likely close to the estimates of American officials, according to which it is 8–10 million barrels per day.

"The increase in covert transits by dedicated shipping companies and ship-to-ship cargo transfers shows that producers and shipping companies are adapting to the conflict in the Middle East," Goldman Sachs wrote.

According to the bank's analysts, the increase in covert flows could "mitigate the rise in crude oil prices, even if disruptions in the Middle East continue for a longer time." According to Bloomberg, it is difficult to accurately estimate how much oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz because oil tankers often turn off their satellite transponders — a practice known as "going dark" — to avoid detection. Traders told Bloomberg this week that about 6–8 million barrels of crude oil pass through the strait daily.

These exports help keep global oil prices — which have fallen to about $89 per barrel, compared to more than $120 in April — under control. The traders' estimate refers only to oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz and does not include some of the Saudi oil exports passing through the Red Sea. Although a large amount of oil manages to leave the Persian Gulf, flow volumes of liquefied natural gas and refined fuels are lower.

"We continue to see potential for larger price increases in European natural gas prices and in prices for petroleum products for later delivery in scenarios of continued disruptions, than in crude oil prices," Goldman Sachs stated.