Oil Exports

Iran's capacity to block oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz is weakening, raising concerns of potential military escalation as its economic crisis deepens.

Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to about two-thirds of pre-war levels, limiting the impact of the conflict with Iran on global prices. Total regional exports have reached 15–16 million barrels per day.

Mohsen Rezaee, recently appointed to a senior security post, has sparked a political storm with hawkish remarks that contradict the official line of Iran's leadership. His comments regarding a potential halt to oil exports and a reconsideration of nuclear doctrine have ignited intense domestic debate.

Iran is hardening its positions and demanding additional concessions from the US, but at the same time is suffering from a severe economic crisis that affects both the regime and tens of millions of its citizens.