Turkey Expands Military Footprint via Mecca Pact Amid Saudi Vulnerability

Saudi Arabia is facing unprecedented embarrassment due to repeated Houthi attacks, notably targeting King Khalid International Airport. Amid this vulnerability, Turkey is seizing momentum, announcing plans to deploy forces to the kingdom under the banner of the Mecca Pact.

Strategic Implications for the Region

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized that the alliance is defensive in nature, though Turkish media has proudly broadcasted footage of Turkish drones patrolling the skies over Mecca. "This is primarily conducted for domestic public relations purposes," explains Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a Turkey expert at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University and the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. "The Turks emphasize that the Mecca Pact will serve as a core to attract additional Muslim nations before attributing any strategic weight to it. From their perspective, this is a baby trying to walk. It is very early to see the final outcome, but from a Turkish perspective, this organization is meant to operate once they gather more countries and it grows larger."

For Israel, which encounters Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean, Syria, and other arenas such as Somalia, this development is problematic. Aside from the religious dimension of protecting Mecca, it establishes an additional strategic arena where Turkey maintains a physical presence. Until the pact's formation in August, Turkey's only permanent Gulf base was in Qatar, designed to reinforce the security of Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Now, the geopolitical stakes are significantly higher.

Vulnerability and Air Traffic Disruption

This shift stems primarily from Saudi Arabia's helplessness in countering the Houthi rebels. Iran's proxies in Yemen responded to Saudi strikes in Sanaa and against pro-Iranian militias in Iraq by imposing a naval blockade on the kingdom. Recognizing that Saudi retaliatory capabilities were negligible, the Houthis added an aerial blockade, which strikes on King Khalid International Airport indicate are proving effective.

An analysis by Gulf Business based on Flightradar24 data on Monday found that 436 flights were canceled at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh as of 5:30 AM, accounting for roughly 64% of operations. This followed the cancellation of 655 flights on Sunday, representing about 98% of scheduled activity. In Jeddah, 115 flights were canceled on Monday, constituting about 15% of operations at King Abdulaziz International Airport, while 63 flights (27% of operations) were canceled at King Fahd International Airport in Dammam.

Dr. Yoel Guzansky, head of the Gulf program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and former coordinator for Iran and Gulf affairs at the National Security Council (NSC), notes that the very act of Saudi Arabia appealing to foreign states for assistance damages the kingdom's image. "Unlike economic issues, security is a novel challenge for them," he stated. These emerging security challenges led Pakistan to deploy forces to the kingdom during Operation Roaring Lion, even before the Mecca Pact, to help defend against Iran. Now, it is evident that neither Pakistan nor Turkey is proving particularly helpful to the Saudis.

Massive Spending, Limited Effectiveness

The kingdom has invested heavily in military buildup over recent years. According to data from the Stockholm International Research Institute (SIPRI), Saudi defense spending last year totaled approximately $83.2 billion (about 6.5% of GDP), representing a 3.5% increase from the previous year and a roughly 23% jump compared to 2021.

"Saudi Arabia is the seventh-largest military spender globally, but this does not translate into effective utility," says Dr. Guzansky. "The Mecca Pact, including the Pakistani forces, is assigned defensive roles. They are not close to Yemen, but rather to Iran, stationed in the eastern part of the kingdom within the Gulf region. It remains unclear what forces have arrived beyond the Pakistani troops deployed since April; rumors point to missile defense. The current situation represents a major failure for the Saudis, who fail to defend, intercept, or even provide early warning against missiles."

Pressure on Washington and Regional Dynamics

In the Middle East, vacuums do not last, and Turkey is eager to fill them. However, Ankara has no desire to antagonize the Houthis or their patron, Iran, which shares a border with Turkey. Consequently, officials repeatedly underscore the defensive nature of the Mecca Pact, despite clear ambitions to expand Turkey's military footprint abroad. Turkey currently maintains 133 military bases outside its borders, placing it second globally behind the United States (887).

"It does not appear that the Turks intend to attack the Houthis anytime soon," Dr. Cohen Yanarocak emphasizes. "Ankara wants to see the Americans intervene, as there is internal domestic criticism within Turkey regarding attacks on holy sites." Dr. Guzansky notes that immense pressure is currently weighing on US President Donald Trump, who cannot afford to leave an ally exposed, though he adds that the current crisis also presents a strategic opportunity.

In recent years, friction and rivalry have grown between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed. Nevertheless, in war-torn Yemen, they share converging interests regarding the necessity of weakening the Houthis. Riyadh backs the Islah movement, which is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, whereas the UAE supports the Southern Transitional Council (STC). To Riyadh's dismay, the primary military forces effectively fighting the Houthis are affiliated with the STC, compelling bin Salman to mend fences with bin Zayed.

"It is not good for Israel that Turkey is sending forces to the region, although I have yet to see Turkish soldiers on Saudi soil—which I believe stems from lingering distrust and tension," Dr. Guzansky concludes. "Condemnatory statements regarding the Mecca Pact have been issued jointly with Egypt, but that does not help the Saudis intercept missiles. The Saudis opened a Pandora's box with the Houthis and landed themselves in deep trouble. The current situation is mending Saudi ties with the Emirates, in the hope that they will do the heavy lifting inside Yemen."