Saudi Arabia Will Soon Join Abraham Accords, Predicts Former Navy Chief
Retired Admiral Eliezer Marom predicts Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords and assesses that a major military conflict with Iran is unlikely before the US midterms.
Middle East tensions remain high as security analysts evaluate future diplomatic and military developments. Retired Admiral Eliezer Marom, former commander of the Israeli Navy and senior researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center, estimates that Saudi Arabia will soon sign a normalization agreement with Israel.
The Abraham Accords Expansion
Marom believes that geopolitical pressures will push Riyadh toward formal recognition.
"The Saudis will have no choice. I estimate that in the end they will join the Abraham Accords. They probably will not want to give this gift to Netanyahu before the elections, but perhaps they will give it to Trump before the midterms. This will change the rules of the game in the Middle East, and it is another sign of the impending fall of the regime in Iran."
Assessment on Iran and Military Scenarios
Regarding renewed tensions with Iran, Marom suggests that the probability of a major military escalation before the USA midterm elections remains low due to a lack of immediate international legitimacy.
He outlined two specific scenarios that could trigger a preemptive military response:
-
A smoking gun indicating Iran is rapidly advancing toward a nuclear weapon within months.
-
Intelligence thwarting an imminent Iranian surprise missile attack, which would be detectable due to liquid-fuel deployment preparations.
The Hormuz Strait Factor
Addressing energy security, Marom minimized the strategic threat posed by the Strait of Hormuz, noting that the USA and global markets have successfully diversified supply routes through overland pipelines.
"The Iranians must understand that other sources in the world have appeared, and they will have a very big problem. Hormuz will be a passing episode," Marom concluded.
