Novo Nordisk Upgrades 2026 Outlook on Strong Weight-Loss Drug Demand
Novo Nordisk upgraded its 2026 revenue outlook following a stronger third quarter driven by surging demand for oral Wegovy. The Danish drugmaker captured over 50% of new US treatment starts, though non-cash write-downs weighed on operating profit.
Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk has upgraded its annual outlook for 2026 following a stronger-than-expected third quarter, driven largely by robust demand for its weight-loss treatments. The company now projects that its 2026 revenue, excluding currency fluctuations, will range between a 2% increase and a 2% decrease compared to last year. This represents an upward revision from previous expectations, which anticipated a revenue decline of up to 6% from the approximately $48 billion recorded in 2025. Following the announcement, Novo's stock rose 4% on the Danish exchange, bringing its market capitalization to $190 billion.
Market Recovery and Pill Form Success
It appears that Novo has successfully regained its footing in the obesity treatment market after previously losing market share to competitor Eli Lilly. In the third quarter, revenue grew by 4% year-over-year at constant exchange rates, reaching $11.9 billion. This growth was driven by strong performance both in the United States, despite Eli Lilly's heavy presence, and across global markets.
Novo reported that the pill version of its Wegovy treatment generated $810 million in revenue, marking a 53% surge compared to the second quarter and outperforming market expectations. Novo has outpaced Eli Lilly in launching an oral GLP-1 treatment, and its pill's efficacy results appear superior to Lilly's newly launched alternative, although Lilly's product offers advantages in dosing simplicity. The market has shown a strong preference for the oral format over injections, signaling positive prospects for Novo as it seeks to maintain its edge in this segment. Conversely, its injectable products face tougher competition, with US sales of Wegovy injections dropping by 13% year-over-year.
Leadership in US Treatment Starts and Financial Details
According to Novo Nordisk, combining its oral and injectable weight-loss treatments gives its Wegovy brand over 50% of new treatment starts in the branded US obesity medication market, offering an encouraging indicator for future performance. Notably, Eli Lilly has also raised its 2026 forecasts amid sustained demand for its own weight-loss therapies.
«We are seeing strong momentum across our key product lines, driven by high demand and successful market adaptation,» company representatives noted regarding the revised outlook.
However, a point of concern in the report was the reported operating profit, which fell by 9% at constant currency, whereas the adjusted operating profit rose by 27%. The company attributed this decline primarily to non-cash accounting impairments, including write-downs stemming from the failure of the cardiovascular drug ziltivekimab following disappointing clinical trial results, as well as restructuring costs within its manufacturing division.
Looking ahead, Novo reiterated its February announcement that starting in 2027, it will slash the list price of Wegovy in the US by approximately 50% to $675. This adjustment is expected to impact insurance providers more than consumer out-of-pocket costs, meaning future financial results will depend on how aggressively insurers pressure patients to adopt the lower-priced therapy.
