Iran warns neighbor: If you don't get your act together, the US will occupy you again

In recent days, political and media figures in Iran have been warning the Taliban regime about the consequences of the unstable situation in Afghanistan for regional security. An article published in an Iranian newspaper titled "The Price of Five Years of Trust in the Taliban" argues that Iran and Russia made a mistake in recent years by treating the Taliban government as a stabilizing factor that could be relied upon.

The article did not spare self-criticism, claiming that the support from Iran and Russia, which maintained diplomatic relations with the Taliban over the last five years, weakened Afghan forces because the fear of confrontation decreased, causing them to lose their competence. The newspaper further stated that the situation could have been exploited to create a political and security balance against this regime, and even to harness Afghan forces for Iran's benefit — as was already done in the "Fatemiyoun" unit of the Revolutionary Guards.

Finally, it was stated that the situation today in Iran's eastern neighbor is instability following the Taliban's policies, in addition to a lack of offensive capability, and this situation could be exploited by Iran's great rival — the USA:

"An unstable Afghanistan serves the interests of the United States. Washington may try to open a new front of pressure against its rivals (Iran and Russia) through Afghan territory."

"Re-occupation" of Afghanistan

Iranian politician Hossein Kanani added that the US could use Afghanistan's location to curb China's expansion westward, as well as to create obstacles in China-Iran relations. He also spoke about the possibility of reorganizing terrorist organizations in Afghanistan and using them as a tool of pressure against countries in the region (Central Asia).

These warnings did not come out of nowhere. They followed a series of statements by the Taliban's Foreign Minister in recent weeks, in which he expressed significant openness toward the United States. In an interview with the New York Times last August, the minister called on Washington to reopen its embassy in Kabul and renew its diplomatic presence, saying that American companies could invest in minerals, dams, and roads.

It is important to note that in the past, Iran and the Taliban were true enemies. Before the US occupied Afghanistan in 2001, the two were even on the verge of war due to religious differences (the Taliban is a radical Sunni terrorist organization, while the regime in Iran is Shiite) — and Iran even supported the overthrow of the terrorist organization's regime by the US. Therefore, when Iran had the opportunity to mend relations with the Taliban's return to power in 2021, the regime decided to seize it with both hands — a move that is now, as mentioned, being criticized.

According to commentators in the Arab media, the Iranian voices against the policy regarding Afghanistan do not represent an official position, but they reveal a more turbulent Iranian debate about the future of relations with the Taliban. This is because Iran, they claim, is now facing a dead end: if it does not act actively against the Taliban's policies, the US will return to its borders, and if it does act actively, it may jeopardize the relations that have been formed. Thus, it turns out that in any case, Iran may end up with an enemy at its gate.