Jeddah axis was close to adding a powerful partner - until Israel entered the picture

The visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Mecca on Friday, during which he signed a security agreement with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, was kept secret until the last moment. According to a report published on Monday on the Middle East Eye website, Turkish officials chose not to publicize the trip in advance for fear that certain parties would attempt to disrupt the signing.

The visit did not appear on Erdogan's official schedule. According to the report, it was only on Tuesday that the three countries decided the signing ceremony would take place on Friday.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated on Saturday that Ankara had spent two years attempting to convince all involved parties to sign the security agreement. While specific military commitments remain vague, the agreement includes a collective defense clause similar to NATO's Article 5, stipulating that an attack against one member state would be considered an attack against all.

In recent months, officials from Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have held regular consultations as part of a group known as the "Regional Quartet." These moves have sparked anger in Israel.

The new alliance that angers Israel

In February, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett accused Turkey of "trying to turn Saudi Arabia against us and establish a hostile Sunni axis with nuclear-armed Pakistan."

Turkish sources in Ankara report that in recent months, both Egypt and Saudi Arabia have shown significant hesitation regarding the establishment of a tighter regional security framework with Turkey. One Turkish official expressed frustration, stating: "We are trying to keep the Egyptians and the Saudis within this framework, while the Israelis are constantly trying to exert pressure on them."

Initially, a tripartite agreement was planned, but Egypt later became a natural candidate to join the mechanism. Egypt, possessing a powerful army, has recently aligned with Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia on various issues, ranging from negotiations to end the war in Gaza to developments in Africa.

Turkey invested significant efforts to include Egypt, but when it became clear that Cairo was not ready, the other countries decided to proceed without it.

Egypt stayed out - and Israel entered the picture

Sources in Ankara claim that Egypt's decision was dictated primarily by its sensitive relationship with Israel. As a US ally and a neighbor of Israel that maintains full diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv, Cairo must carefully manage its complex ties with the Israeli government. Joining the agreement would have inevitably led to pressure from Israel.

The Egyptian publication "Mada Masr" confirmed that Cairo had decided not to join the agreement. Regional observers note other factors as well: Egypt finds it difficult to choose sides amid growing tension between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Remaining outside the alliance gives Cairo room to maneuver.

Egypt has a defense agreement with Abu Dhabi and is not interested in choosing between two emerging blocs: Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan on one side, and Israel, the UAE, and India on the other. Despite Egypt's current decision, Turkish officials hope that as the new alliance establishes itself as a credible deterrent, Cairo will be more willing to join.