Israel Forges Strategic Ties with Somaliland to Counter Houthi Threat

On October 19, 2023, about two weeks after the outbreak of the Swords of Iron war, the Houthis from Yemen carried out their first-ever firing toward Israel. In the opening strike, five ballistic missiles and some 30 UAVs were launched, heading north along the Red Sea to strike Israel, primarily targeting the city of Eilat. All threats were intercepted or downed along the way by the U.S. destroyer USS Carney, patrolling the northern Red Sea.

Saudi Arabia's air defense systems intercepted another ballistic missile that penetrated its airspace. In July 2024, a UAV struck the roof of a building on Ben Yehuda Street in Tel Aviv, resulting in the death of Yevgeny Ferder and the injury of some 20 civilians. A day later, the IDF launched Operation Long Arm, during which Air Force jets attacked the port of Hodeidah.

Yemen is located about 2,400 kilometers from Israel's border, known in military terminology as a fourth-circle confrontation arena. When the Houthis began launching missile and drone attacks, the IDF and the Mossad lacked real intelligence footholds in Yemen, placing the Houthis at the bottom of collection and research priorities for Aman and the Mossad.

The IDF had few targets for attack and an insufficient understanding of the locations of Houthi military and government assets. Available information and targets mainly focused on the piers of the Hodeidah port, which served as a supply hub for the organization. Since October 2024, Israel has built intelligence footholds and broad operational capabilities against the Houthis in Yemen. The Head of Aman, Major General Shlomi Binder, established the Yemen arena within Aman, which is already producing intelligence products that are an asset not only for Israel.

When planning the Air Force's initial strikes in Yemen, initially under Operation Long Arm, the then-Air Force Commander, Major General Tomer Bar, set several rules. The central one was that the aircraft must have sufficient fuel in their tanks at every stage of the flight to return home independently at any time. This required a tanker aircraft envelope, alongside additional envelopes for preparing the aircraft and pilots.

The African Card

Alongside building intelligence footholds in Yemen, the Mossad worked to advance a move that could be a game-changer: forging an alliance with a relatively small country in the Horn of Africa named Somaliland. This is a de facto independent state that broke away from its mother country, Somalia.

Somaliland spans approximately 176,000 square kilometers in the eastern part of the Horn of Africa. The country borders Djibouti to the west, Ethiopia to the south, and shares an eastern border with the Puntland region of Somalia. Its coastline, approximately 740 kilometers long, stretches along the Gulf of Aden. The terrain in the north is characterized by towering mountain ranges, generally ranging from 900 to 2,100 meters in height. The Ogo mountain range crosses the country from north to south. All of this is an asset for Israel.

A good relationship with the country, which is considered diplomatically isolated globally, and building economic, political, and military ties regarding Yemen, could allow Israel to turn Yemen from a fourth-circle threat into an arena where it has operational capability against an enemy within arm's reach. Somaliland's topographical structure creates intelligence-gathering capabilities directed at many points in Yemen.

This week, about two weeks after the Houthis seized the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and endangered freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, together with Yemeni government forces, launched an offensive to liberate the strait. According to the Saudis, about 100 combat aircraft participated in the strike.

Shortly after the offensive began, the spokesperson for the Yemeni government forces announced that the troops had retaken the Bab el-Mandeb Strait area and that the Houthis had fled the region. Ostensibly, this is a move that could affect global trade and shipping movement. However, it is important to temper the optimism slightly.

Military sources note that the Houthis operated against merchant vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait area even before physically holding the strait. The Houthis found a way to strike ships: they track vessel movements as they appear on public maps when ships transmit their locations and sailing routes according to navigation procedures. The Houthis know how to launch long-range fire from Sanaa, Hodeidah, Hajjah, Al-Bayda, Dhamar, Ibb, and Amran. The firing is conducted using precise munitions or UAVs.

Officially, Israel does not disclose security and intelligence ties between Israel and Somaliland. However, diplomatic ties are discussed, including the visit of Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar, delegations of Israeli businesspeople, and the decision to appoint an Israeli ambassador to the country.

A security official says: "Somaliland is a strategic-security asset for Israel." He adds: "The ability to sit one hundred to two hundred kilometers from an enemy state located about 2,500 kilometers from your Air Force bases is definitely an asset. You can gather intelligence, you can operate air assets for strikes or rescue a downed pilot," the military official says.

The Long Arm Shortens

The IDF operated in Yemen not only using fighter jets, but also via UAVs and the Navy. The ability to operate a UAV, which flies at a speed of only about 200 km/h, is particularly significant when targeting a human target some 2,500 kilometers away. In such a situation, launching the UAV from Israel is difficult, and it is preferable to launch it from a base closer to the interception action area.

The fact that there is forward logistical capability at an airfield, where a fighter jet in distress requiring the pilot to land immediately or, God forbid, in case of ejection, can arrive, makes Somaliland's location as a friendly nation to Israel an asset worth a fortune.

In the near future, it is likely that Israel will deepen its ties with the small country in the Horn of Africa. It constitutes a strategic asset for Israel's freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, as well as "the gun placed on the table" against any aggression by the Iranian proxy in the Gulf of Aden—the Houthis.