Surprise attack: How Vladimir Putin could catch NATO unprepared
New assessment in Washington: Russia may carry out a targeted attack against a member state of the alliance in the coming years. The concern arises against the backdrop of severe depletion of ammunition stocks following arms supplies to Ukraine and the war with Iran. According to the Wall Street Journal, Vladimir Putin could try to test the alliance's capabilities to attempt to gain an advantage in his war against Ukraine.
New US intelligence reports released suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin may try to test the resolve of the NATO alliance through a limited attack against one of its member states over the coming years. This was reported tonight (Friday) in the Wall Street Journal, which revealed possible scenarios ranging from a large-scale cyberattack to a limited ground invasion.
These assessments are being published against the backdrop of a growing shortage of critical ammunition in the US military — assets required for potential confrontations with Russia or China. According to officials, US stockpiles have been significantly depleted following the massive flow of weapons to Ukraine since the outbreak of the war, as well as due to parallel conflicts, including the arena against Iran.
Among the weapon systems at risk: long-range precision strike missiles, tactical missile systems of the ground forces, and short-range Stinger-type anti-aircraft missiles.
Until recently, Washington assumed that Vladimir Putin would refrain from provoking a NATO member state as long as the fighting in Ukraine continued. However, at the beginning of the year, this assessment changed. US officials explain that the reason for this is growing concern in the Kremlin about the shrinking space for action in Ukraine, alongside internal pressure in Russia to present a significant military achievement.
At the same time, Ukrainian drone attacks are causing increasing damage to the Russian military and the country's oil industry, while the gains of Russian forces on the front remain limited and accompanied by heavy losses.
Leaders in the US and Europe also point to signs that Russia is already testing the alliance's response through targeted actions. Among other things, there were reports of Russian cruise missiles landing on Polish territory and unmanned aerial vehicles penetrating Romanian airspace.
According to US officials, a central goal of such a move, if it were to materialize, would be to undermine unity within NATO.
"The big question is how the United States will respond, — said Heather Conley, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. — The challenge to NATO's credibility and the attempt to separate the US from its allies have been and remain a central goal of Russia."
