In Washington, they are talking again about the fall of the regime in Iran: Trump is considering declaring victory, Vance will take the podium
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says that pressure on Tehran could lead to the public rising up against the regime or the Revolutionary Guards turning on each other. Trump, who called on Iranians to "rise up and fight," refused to say if he would send the CIA to arm them - and at the same time is discussing with his advisors the possibility of declaring the end of the war.
In the Trump administration, they have returned in recent days to speak openly about the possibility that military and economic pressure on Iran will eventually lead to an internal uprising or even the fall of the regime, while at the same time President Donald Trump is holding discussions with his advisors about the possibility of declaring that the war has ended.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent presented the possibility of regime change as a likely result, even if not as an official goal of the administration. "The goal here is not necessarily to topple the regime. It could happen," he said. "Maybe the people will rise up. There is 100% inflation, lines, the army is not getting paid. The head of the Central Bank was in a panic last week."
In another conversation, Bessent described three possible scenarios as a result of continued pressure on Tehran. According to him, at some stage "either the Revolutionary Guards will turn on each other, or the people will turn against them, or they will come to the table and want to reach an agreement that they are capable of keeping." Bessent thus repeated Trump's line that the previous agreement collapsed because Iran was not yet ready for a deal.
These remarks connect directly to the messages voiced by Trump himself. After he posted on Truth Social a call for Iranians to rise up and fight, the president was asked if this meant he was willing to send the CIA to arm Iranians seeking to topple the regime. Trump did not rule out the possibility. "I wouldn't want to tell you that. I would be happy to tell you, but it would not be appropriate to say," he replied.
Later, he said that he understands the plight of the Iranians and claimed that they are shot when they go out to demonstrate. "The regime is getting weaker and weaker by the day, and at some point they will no longer be able to shoot so easily, because I think the people will not agree to accept that," he said. According to him, he raised the question of when the Iranians will rise up because "it is time."
However, parallel to the messages about the possibility of an internal uprising, Trump is also considering how to end the current military chapter. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Trump is holding closed-door discussions with senior advisors on whether to declare that the war in Iran has ended. American officials said that Trump himself expressed support for the idea.
According to the report, the president estimates that after the cessation of the military campaign, the heavy economic pressure exerted by the United States could achieve the remaining goals, primarily the dismantling of Iran's nuclear program. According to the assessment attributed to Trump, the pressure could leave the regime with two options: to give up the nuclear program or risk internal collapse.
The possibility that Trump will soon declare victory comes after the president said earlier that he does not estimate that the confrontation will last much longer. "Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons," he said. "Once this is over, and I don't think it will last much longer, I don't know how much more they are capable of absorbing." However, in recent days, American forces have continued to attack Iranian targets, and Trump threatened that any further response from Tehran would be met with greater force.
Today, Vice President J.D. Vance is also expected to enter this discussion. After almost two months in which no regular press briefing was held at the White House, Vance is expected to stand in the briefing room and answer reporters' questions. Iran is expected to be at the center of the questions, alongside internal political and economic issues in the United States.
Vance's appearance on this stage is also interesting from an Israeli perspective. The last time he stood there before reporters (June 18 of this year), he directed unusually sharp public criticism at the Israeli government following the opposition of Israeli ministers to an agreement with Iran: "If I were a member of the Israeli government cabinet, perhaps I would not attack the only strong ally I have left in the world," Vance said then.
He added that Trump is "the only leader in the world who is still sympathetic to Israel," and later attacked the claim that Israel can solve all its threats through military means. Afterwards, in an interview with the New York Times, referring to the criticism from ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, Vance said: "What is your exact proposal? You are a country of nine million people. You cannot just kill your way out of every national security problem you have."
Vance also mentioned the Israeli dependence on American security assistance. "In the last three months, two-thirds of the defense systems that protected you were produced in the US and funded by American taxpayers' money," he said. "Israel's problem is not Donald Trump, and anyone in Israel who thinks the president is their biggest problem needs to wake up and understand the reality that the country is in."
Today, as Vance returns to stand before the White House reporters, the central question will be not only how the administration intends to continue acting against Iran, but also whether Washington is already beginning to move from the war stage to the next stage: declaring victory, increasing economic strangulation, and waiting to see if the pressure will bring Tehran to an agreement or the Iranian public to an uprising, and whether Vance will lean, as some suggest he has been doing recently, in favor of Israel because he sees his candidacy for president in 2028 as closer than ever.
