A new front? Former National Security Council head warns: "The potential for a clash with Turkey has risen"

Meir Ben-Shabbat, former National Security Advisor and head of the National Security Council, one of the architects of the Abraham Accords and currently head of the Misgav Institute for Zionist Strategy and National Security, warns in an interview with "Maariv" against complacency regarding Syria and the strengthening of Turkey in the region. According to him, Israel must continue to strive for peace agreements — but not at the cost of giving up security assets or relying on agreements that could turn out to be reversible.

"One must not give up the aspiration for peace, but one must not let it make us lose our minds," he says.

Do you think Syria is currently trying to "lull" Israel with messages of normalization, while it rebuilds military capabilities — and is Turkey providing support to this move?

"I do not know how to read the secrets of al-Sharaa's heart, but as someone who came from the heart of the jihadist darkness, sat in prison with the most extreme jihad leaders, fought in its ranks for years while hoping for the realization of the Islamic State vision, and reached where he reached on the shoulders of a jihadist base with the support of Erdogan, one should not be impressed by the change in his external appearance. One should not assume he has abandoned his path. I recommended assuming that the change is part of the tactic he is using to gain recognition for his rule, stabilize it, and establish his status, and then turn to achieving his visionary goals."

Just two weeks ago, I said regarding the contacts with Syria: "From Israel's perspective, it is forbidden to give up its control over the territory and its freedom of security action for agreements that will not be worth the paper they are signed on. This is true regarding Lebanon and no less so regarding the jihadist in a suit who also serves as Erdogan's proxy." I concluded my words then with the words: "Can the Ethiopian change his skin, or the leopard his spots?"

Turkey has been expanding its influence in recent years. Is Ankara actually trying to enter the vacuum left by Iran and become the central regional power — and could this process lead to a more direct clash with Israel?

"Yes, Turkey is exploiting the changes in the Middle East and the competition between the powers to establish its status as a leading regional power. This process, along with Erdogan's ambitions and his hostility towards Israel, indeed raises the potential for friction and strategic collision. I will mention only some focal points:

1. Syria: following the collapse of the Assad regime and the withdrawal of the Iranian military presence, Turkey has become the dominant player. Ankara is deepening its grip through funding and training of a 'New Syrian Army' and establishing infrastructure.

2. Regional alliances: the signing of the 'Mecca Joint Defense Agreement' (MJDA) between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan reflects the rise of a central Sunni axis, placing Turkey in a position of political and military leadership.

3. 'Blue Homeland' (Mavi Vatan) doctrine: Turkey's maritime ambitions in the Eastern Mediterranean collide head-on with Israel's geopolitical energy alliances with Greece and Cyprus (IMEC).

4. Support for Hamas: Turkey continues to host senior Hamas leadership figures, some of whom are involved in directing terror cells in Judea and Samaria directly from Istanbul soil. In addition, Turkey is currently operating a comprehensive campaign to institutionalize accusations against Israel to position it as an international criminal."

However, Ben-Shabbat says that one should not compare Turkey to Iran: "Each of them has its own characteristics and a different way of dealing."

To what extent should Israel be suspicious today of agreements that serve as a tactical tool for lowering alertness?

"Suspicion and caution will certainly not hurt — 'Blessed is the man who always fears.' One must not give up the aspiration for peace, but this aspiration must not make us lose our minds. One must give everything its time, not run to unripe agreements, and not miss real opportunities. Most importantly — do not entrust our security to any party, maintain security margins, do not exchange tangible assets for such and such paper, and know that an agreement can be reversible — someone else with a different position and other ambitions can always come in its place."