Sinwar Warned of 'Earthquake' Weeks Before Oct. 7 Attack, Newly Revealed Note Shows
Newly revealed documents show that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar warned of an impending earthquake and prisoner release via a back channel weeks before the October 7 attack.
Twenty-two days before the October 7 massacre, Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar dictated a warning message to the Israeli side through former Palestinian minister Sufyan Abu Zayda. According to Abu Zayda, who revealed the note for the first time during a documentary broadcast on the Arab TV channel Al-Radd, Sinwar stated that before the end of September, the cards would be put on the table, an earthquake would occur regarding negotiations, and Israel must prepare to empty the prisons.
The warning, written in Abu Zayda's handwriting, mirrors details previously reported by Ronen Bergman in Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth. According to those reports, highly classified intelligence reached Israel in mid-September 2023, indicating that Sinwar claimed Hamas would present something causing an earthquake and the release of all prisoners by the end of the month. This information arrived via a back channel—a secret and direct communication route between senior Hamas officials and Israel.
Abu Zayda testified that the meeting took place on September 14, 2023. Sinwar asked him to convey the message word for word. Abu Zayda, a former prisoner operating within a back channel established in March 2022 following an approach by Hamas political bureau member Ghazi Hamad, stated that he passed the message to Israeli authorities immediately. Within half an hour, Israeli officials contacted him to verify the authenticity, and an urgent meeting was scheduled for the following morning in Ashkelon.
During the meeting in Ashkelon, Israeli representatives inquired about the meaning of the earthquake reference, the nature of the cards, and Sinwar's demeanor. Abu Zayda replied that Sinwar was completely calm. The back channel had previously involved exchanging lists of prisoners for a potential humanitarian deal, including women, minors, and veteran prisoners. Abu Zayda also briefed Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar on Hamas's positions during the process.
The September 14 meeting marked the final interaction within this back channel. Abu Zayda returned to Gaza on October 5, planning another meeting with Sinwar for October 8. Twenty-two days after the dictation of the note, Hamas launched the October 7 attack. Abu Zayda noted that the cards Sinwar referred to ultimately ended up on the war table rather than the negotiation table.
