Precedent in Germany since World War II: "Bad for Israel, bad for the Jews"
The "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) party is expected to win Sunday's elections in Saxony-Anhalt with more than 40% of the vote. This will be the first time an extreme-right party comes to power in a state in "new Germany". On the national level, it leads with 27%, ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party. Dr. Rami Daniel from INSS: "This is not the extreme right that Israel wants."
Saxony-Anhalt, one of Germany's 16 federal states, is located in the east-central part of the country. Its capital is Magdeburg. With a population of 2.12 million, 27% of whom are over 65, it is one of the smallest and oldest federal states. Nevertheless, on Sunday, September 6, all eyes in Germany will be on it as it prepares to make history.
The "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) party will finish first, and for the first time ever, it is expected to receive about 40% or more of the votes. In a ZDF poll published on Friday, it stands at 40%, compared to 23% for the Christian Democrats (CDU), who currently lead the coalition. In any case, the AfD will break its previous record, set in 2024 in Thuringia (32.8%).
Incumbent Prime Minister Sven Schulze, who took office in January, risks losing his post. His predecessor, Reiner Haseloff, resigned after 15 years to give the CDU candidate an incumbent's advantage, but seven months later, the gap with the AfD has only grown. Germany's political system has relied on the "firewall"—a refusal by all parties to cooperate with the AfD. In Saxony-Anhalt, it is facing its toughest test.
The firewall in danger
In an extreme scenario, the AfD could form a government on its own. In a more likely one, it will need one partner. If no candidate is elected by an absolute majority in the first two rounds in the local parliament, a simple majority is sufficient in the third round, allowing the AfD candidate to become prime minister even without a coalition. The extreme right in Germany is returning in a big way.
This phenomenon is not limited to Saxony-Anhalt. On the national level, the AfD leads with 27% support, about five percentage points ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where elections are held on September 20, the party is also expected to win. In Berlin, voting the same day, the AfD reaches third place with 18%.
In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD is doubling its strength compared to five years ago (21%). The extreme-left "Die Linke" is expected to receive about 13%, and the populist-left BSW hovers around 3% to 4%. As some parties fail to pass the electoral threshold, the final support for the AfD may grow even further.
"It may be the first time that the AfD will receive political responsibility in a German state," says Dr. Rami Daniel, coordinator of the Europe desk at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). "If they fail to reach 50% on their own, we may see a coalition led by the AfD supported by the BSW, if the latter passes the threshold."
Another possibility is a coalition of all other parties, including the extreme-left "Die Linke" and conservative CDU, to prevent the AfD from forming a government. Until recently, such an alliance was hard to imagine.
A bad combination of extreme right and left
Ulrich Siegmund (35) may serve as prime minister for the AfD; he was recently defined by "Der Spiegel" as "the most dangerous man in Germany." He is known as an extreme-right figure who avoids condemning Nazi crimes. Some of his supporters have clear neo-Nazi backgrounds. In its campaign, the AfD promises a "patriotic cultural policy" and to stop funding art it defines as anti-German.
"The results, which are expected to be bad for the major parties, could spill over into the government in Berlin, even to the point of early elections," says Dr. Daniel. "The day after could trigger a political crisis that will radiate to the Chancellor's office, which is already at an unprecedented low in public opinion."
According to Dr. Daniel, anti-Israel and sometimes antisemitic views are common in the AfD, "Die Linke," and BSW. "Many are counting on the extreme right in Europe as an ally. But the AfD is problematic for Israel and the Jews. If they connect with the BSW, which is very anti-Israel, this combination of extreme right and left could harm relations with Israel in the not-too-distant future."
Meanwhile, an art festival called "Utopia" took place last week in Saxony-Anhalt with the Israeli embassy as a partner. "The AfD wants to cut programs for those working with other cultures, but we are supported by civil society, so we will survive. We are in favor of openness, unlike the AfD," said Wolf Günther Thiel, one of the exhibition's organizers.
