Mojtaba Khamenei Seeks Revenge as Iran Faces Growing Domestic Instability
Intelligence assessments indicate that Mojtaba Khamenei is making independent decisions and seeking revenge while Iran faces severe economic collapse and growing domestic unrest.
According to intelligence estimates, Mojtaba Khamenei, who survived the strike during Operation Roaring Lion, remains physically injured, eager to avenge his father's death, and is making decisions independently. Intelligence assessments indicate that Khamenei is surrounding himself with extremist commanders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including veteran commanders with extensive experience from the Iran-Iraq War. Israeli security officials assess that this trajectory risks leading the Iranian regime toward an abyss.
Reports emerging from Iran highlight severe economic hardships, including difficulties in purchasing food and basic commodities. With many families unable to afford meat, daily life has become increasingly complex and challenging. Public frustration could drive several societal processes, including intense hostility toward the regime or the channeling of grievances against the United States and Israel. Security sources note that while protests remain localized for now, escalating domestic pressure is only a matter of time.
Strategic Pressures and Economic Collapse
Security assessments suggest that the regime's potential collapse could take between one and three years at the current pace. Sustained pressure on Tehran depends on two main processes: enforcing comprehensive US sanctions, including the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, and shifting stances by external actors such as China and the United Arab Emirates. Gulf states remain primarily concerned that the United States might reach separate understandings with Tehran or unilaterally withdraw from the Middle East, leaving regional allies vulnerable.
According to preliminary discussions between the United States and Israel, approximately 75 to 80 percent of the Iranian population opposes the ruling regime. Merchants in the traditional bazaar, serving as a barometer for national sentiment, demonstrated notable resilience by returning to the streets despite violent crackdowns by the Basij.
Defense officials emphasize that ongoing US-Israeli efforts aim to capitalize on these internal vulnerabilities through targeted influence operations and diplomatic pressure to accelerate the degradation of the clerical establishment.
