Iran under pressure, but hardening positions: "The Revolutionary Guards effectively run the country"

Against the backdrop of tensions between Washington and Tehran and the sluggish contacts for ending the war, Professor Uzi Rabi, from the Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, argues that precisely at a time when economic pressure on Iran is increasing, the regime in Tehran is hardening its positions and promoting more hardline elements to key positions.

In a conversation with Professor Aryeh Eldad and Ron Kofman on their program "Five in the Evening" on 103fm, Rabi addressed the announcement by US President Donald Trump about intensifying economic pressure on the regime of the Ayatollahs and the gap between those placed at the forefront of negotiations and the real centers of power in Iran.

"There is a disconnect here that existed from the beginning, between those who were the front on the subject of negotiations and those who manage things in Iran," he said. "Precisely in recent days we are seeing another series of appointments of people who are super dogmatic. They are hardening the positions in the regime. Not only are they not rounding corners, but they are sharpening them."

According to Rabi, even the economic blows that the regime is absorbing are not causing it to be flexible at this stage. "This regime, as deep and difficult as the economic blows it absorbs are, still remains entrenched in its position, because the greatest enemy from its point of view is its own people and the possibility that the people will rise in rebellion against it."

He added that the fear of the Iranian public also influences the identity of the people who are currently being promoted within the system. "The regime is appointing more and more people whose expertise and career were built on walking over the corpses of the Iranian public. Everyone who is an expert in this subject, from the past and present, is being promoted to positions."

Gulf states doubt the US

Rabi also addressed the impact of the war on the Gulf states, which, according to him, found themselves re-evaluating basic assumptions that had accompanied them for decades.

"The Gulf states are at a loss. One must take into account that these countries have lost their world, all the perceptions and platforms they relied on for decades - everything seems to them now like nonsense," he said.

According to him, the crisis is deep enough to reach a re-examination of the security relationship with Washington. "It is so difficult that they are casting doubt on the American umbrella, and even on the feasibility of keeping American bases on their territory. They have reached the conclusion that with unbearable ease, that same Iran, truly beaten and bruised, can with a wave of a hand disrupt their lives and paralyze them."

Rabi expressed support for applying economic pressure on Iran, but doubted the ability of the West to persist in it over time. "Trump is making a mistake because there is an economic campaign here. One needs to listen to Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, who talks about unprecedented steps, and we will see what they will impose on Iran this week. I am a big fan of the economic story, but consistency and stamina are needed, which I don't know if Trump and the West have."

---

"The Revolutionary Guards effectively run the country"

Later, Rabi addressed the power centers within Iran and argued that the Revolutionary Guards are the body that currently effectively runs the country. "I assume that Mojtaba is wounded and limited. This is important because what the Revolutionary Guards are doing, who are the ones who effectively run the country, is to receive messages confirming their actions. This is how the existing governing structure is preserved."

According to Rabi, "We know that he (Mojtaba) was hit and I am not sure that in the way he conducts himself he can be so dominant. Those who are pouring content into the entire reality in Iran right now are the Revolutionary Guards, who ultimately use the guise of the Supreme Leader."

He even argued that senior figures who appear outwardly as representatives of the government are not necessarily those who make the decisions. "They send people like Qalibaf and Pezeshkian to the front, to ultimately be 'Shabbos goys' for the West, but in the end the decision is made within the 'consilium' of the Revolutionary Guards," he concluded.