The hit among US youth: They poured $5.4 billion into Kalshi this year

Young people aged 18 to 21, who are legally prohibited from gambling in most US states, poured about $5.4 billion this year into the prediction platform Kalshi, according to a new CNN analysis. The regulatory gap stems from the fact that such platforms are defined in the US as financial markets and are regulated at the federal level, rather than as gambling in the traditional sense, and are therefore open to anyone over 18. This is in contrast to casinos and betting houses regulated at the state level, where the entry age is usually over 21.

On prediction sites, one can bet on almost anything: election results, weather, and cultural events. But the sector that attracts the most money is sports, including parlay bets, which accounts for about 80% of Kalshi's total trading volume. According to the analysis, 18–21-year-olds traded in these categories this year to the tune of about $3.9 billion, and the industry expects the number to only grow with the start of the American football season in the fall, following a sharp rise already in the summer due to the World Cup.

Kalshi's total trading volume this year stands at more than $173 billion, according to data from the investment fund Paradigm, which is among the company's prominent investors. A Kalshi spokesperson told CNN this week that users aged 18–21 account for about 3.14% of the total trading volume, but declined to provide further precise data on the trading volumes and spending of this age group. The company has previously noted that it operates protection mechanisms for young users, including deposit limits and alerts for users who exhibit risk patterns, and has also donated about $2 million to the National Council on Problem Gambling.

Kalshi, which analysts estimate controls about 90% of the US prediction market, is currently at the center of a stormy legal battle. Backed by the Donald Trump administration, the prediction platforms operate as financial exchanges regulated solely at the federal level, under CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) regulation. But this situation is now subject to legal challenge, backed by 44 US state attorneys general, dozens of Native American tribes, and the casino industry.

The American Gaming Association (AGA) presents the trading data of 18–21-year-olds on Kalshi as an example of its long-standing fight against the existence of sports betting on such platforms, as it claims they are effectively unlicensed betting houses. The organization's president, Bill Miller, argued that many parents are unaware that their children, even though they are prohibited from entering a legal betting house, can now bet on football games directly from their mobile phone through these platforms. Supporters of the platforms, on the other hand, point out that even 18-year-olds are legally allowed to trade on the stock market and take risks in volatile financial products that are also regulated by the CFTC.

Not all players in the market have chosen the same policy. The giant Fanatics, for example, launched a prediction platform last year for those 21 and older only, arguing that it believes this is the appropriate age for real financial activity. Major sports bodies like the NBA and NFL also approached the CFTC with a demand to raise the minimum trading age to 21, but the commission rejected the request and continues to formulate federal regulation that will maintain the current threshold of 18 and older.