"The world will cross the red line": The new UN warning
A decade after the Paris Agreement, a UN report determines: the global fight against global warming has failed. Scientists warn that the world is expected to cross the warming threshold within a few years and fear a tipping point from which the Earth will not be able to recover.
One of the most important goals in the global fight against the climate crisis is no longer achievable - so determines a new UN report released on Wednesday. A decade after the Paris Agreement, in which the countries of the world committed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the report determines unequivocally: the world has failed. "The world is expected to cross the warming threshold within a few years," the report states, and now the struggle is moving to the damage control phase.
In the 141-page UN report, fifty scientists outline a new and worrying climate reality. According to them, the world will no longer be able to prevent the crossing of the 1.5-degree warming threshold, and therefore the goal now is different: to reduce the deviation from it as much as possible, and subsequently to try and lower the global temperature back down. To do this, it will be necessary to sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions and remove from the atmosphere some of the carbon dioxide that has already accumulated.
In order for the world to have a chance to return to the 1.5-degree threshold during the current century, the warming will need to be stopped before it passes the 1.8-degree threshold. To this end, countries will need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2035 and reach almost zero emissions by the middle of the century. Even if they meet these targets, the UN emphasizes that there is no certainty that temperatures will indeed be able to drop back down. Scientists predict that it will take about 50 years to reverse the warming caused during just one decade. "You cannot rely on carbon removal as a free get-out-of-jail card," warned climate scientist Richard Betts, who was among the team members who compiled the report.
Even in a scenario where the world succeeds in stopping the warming, the damage is expected to be heavy. Heat waves, fires, hurricanes, and floods are expected to become much more extreme, the sea level will continue to rise, and coastal cities and small island nations will face a growing threat. In addition, without significant adaptation measures, scientists warn, global food production could drop by 14%.
Meanwhile, some of the damage will not be repairable. Even if humanity succeeds in the future in returning temperatures to below the 1.5-degree threshold, at least a quarter of the world's glaciers are expected to disappear permanently, species that go extinct will not return, certain ecosystems will not recover, and the rise in sea level and the melting of glaciers are expected to continue for many long years.
Scientists also warn against the possibility that crossing the threshold will trigger "tipping points" in the climate system: changes that cannot be reversed once they have begun. Among others, a possible collapse of parts of the Amazon rainforest, rapid disintegration of ice sheets at the poles, and changes in ocean currents that transfer heat from the equator regions northward are mentioned. Such scenarios, the report warns, could change global climate systems irreversibly.
Earth is currently on the way to warming of about 2.6 degrees by the end of the century. The UN emphasizes that even the new path is far from being a desired solution, and that the possibility of returning the warming to below 1.5 degrees remains "highly uncertain." "This is by no means the accepted or preferred way," the report states. "It is simply the best option that remains."
The worrying report of the European Union
The European Union report determined last week that at least 35,000 people died during the deadly heat wave in Europe, and scientists fear a doubling of excess mortality cases. Since May, the European continent has been experiencing record-breaking heat waves, which led to dozens of deadly fires. In France, record temperatures of 44 degrees were recorded this summer for the first time ever.
In Germany, the highest number of deaths was recorded, with about 14,000 heat-related deaths - the deadliest summer recorded in the country. In Spain, it is estimated that about 4,947 people died as a result of the heat, while in France, 7,300 cases of excess mortality have been reported so far. Also in the UK, Belgium, and the Netherlands, thousands of additional deaths were recorded, while the data in many countries still does not include the month of August.
Global warming - the reason for the floods in Nepal?
Although it has not yet been determined unequivocally what led to the flood disaster in Nepal, it is possible that what we saw last week was one of the horror scenarios that scientists warn about. The deadly flood occurred following the melting of glaciers, which led to a massive landslide of ice, rocks, and soil. Climate experts claimed that the conditions for the collapse developed over months as rising temperatures and increased melting of the ice destabilized the ground. Scientists are cautious about determining at this stage what the exact part of climate change was in this specific event.
