The antisemitic MP whom the Polish right avoided - and may now decide the elections
The political system in Poland is in turmoil ahead of next year's elections: Grzegorz Braun, remembered for extinguishing a Hanukkiah with a fire extinguisher, may become a kingmaker following a split on the right that saw 40 MPs leave the Law and Justice party.
Almost three years ago, Grzegorz Braun sprayed a fire extinguisher on Hanukkah candles lit in the Polish parliament. The far-right politician dismissively referred to the Jewish holiday as an "act of Satan worship," scattering white foam throughout the lobby. Now, Braun, a Member of the European Parliament and leader of a pro-Russian party aiming to crown Jesus as King of Poland, is emerging as the man who may determine the fate of the country's next elections.
Braun's party, the "Confederation of the Polish Crown," which strongly opposes the European Union and any Polish aid to Ukraine, currently polls at 10% and is on an upward trend. According to the "Daily Telegraph," the "Law and Justice" party, long the dominant force on the Polish right, suffered a blow last month when Mateusz Morawiecki was ousted along with 40 MPs. Morawiecki established a competing faction called "Development Plus," which he plans to turn in October into a center-right party focused on economic growth.
This political split changes the rules of the game. With no real chance for any right-wing party to achieve an independent majority to oust the "Civic Coalition" of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, it seems only a coalition with Braun's extremist party could secure victory for the right in the fall 2027 elections.
Alex Szczerbiak, a professor of political science at the University of Sussex, emphasized to the "Telegraph" that "the right has no way to power that does not pass through a coalition with Braun, if the elections were held today."
Jarosław Kaczyński, leader of "Law and Justice," previously insisted there was "nothing to talk about" regarding an alliance with Braun due to his extreme views, but the 77-year-old Kaczyński will no longer head the party. The party is now backing former Education Minister Przemysław Czarnek as a candidate for Prime Minister, and he refuses to rule out such a coalition. Meanwhile, President Karol Nawrocki, who enjoys 54% support, is emerging as a potential "kingmaker" capable of bridging gaps in the right-wing bloc.
While Tusk looks at the split on the right "with a smile," experts warn that a combination of the four right-wing parties could pose a formidable opponent. Polls currently indicate 32% for Tusk's party, compared to 20% for "Law and Justice," 15% for the original "Confederation" party, and 7% for "Development Plus."
Braun, once perceived as a lunatic, has become a key figure. His support surged during the COVID-19 pandemic due to his vocal opposition to lockdowns, and he is popular in the conservative, rural south. Surprisingly, he also attracts a young audience.
Professor Renata Mieńkowska-Norkiene from the University of Warsaw explains that young people on TikTok "think he is funny, brave, and pro-Polish in the purest way." She added that social media algorithms and networks of Russian bots, which echo his anti-Ukrainian messages, significantly help build his power among new voters.
Alongside the young, Braun cultivates support among nationalists, Catholics, and monarchists. His statements have often caused a storm, such as his speech outside Auschwitz, where he compared government plans to promote Jewish life to "inviting Hannibal Lecter to move in next door," while declaring that "Poland belongs to the Poles." Now, given his pro-Russian positions, the Polish right faces a paradoxical reality: to return to power and oust Tusk, they likely need the support of the man with the fire extinguisher.
