Israeli Intelligence Detects Hamas Preparing for Potential Return to Combat
Israeli intelligence reports indicate Hamas is exploiting the interim ceasefire period to rebuild its military capabilities and stockpile weapons, raising concerns within the security establishment as political timelines in the US and Israel unfold.
Israeli intelligence agencies have recently identified increased preparations by Hamas for a potential resumption of fighting in the Gaza Strip. According to intelligence assessments presented to the political leadership, Hamas is exploiting the interim period to stockpile force and weaponry, including transferring arms to civilian areas.
The assessment in Israel is that Hamas is also factoring in the political calendar. The organization calculates that during the period leading up to the elections in Israel and the United States, Israel's room for maneuver is limited and that it will not receive a green light at this stage for a return to a broad campaign in the Gaza Strip. Consequently, the defense establishment has identified an attempt to exploit this time to build up forces and prepare for the possibility that political conditions will change after the elections.
According to an official familiar with the intelligence picture, Hamas understands that after the elections, a situation may arise where Israel will receive broader operational freedom in Gaza—prompting the organization to prepare now for the possibility of returning to combat. This assessment was also presented during the Security Cabinet meeting that convened on Sunday. Cabinet officials noted that briefings by the IDF and Shin Bet indicated that Hamas might exploit civilian infrastructure. Defense officials clarified to the ministers that this is not a new modus operandi, but rather a return to a previously known pattern, and that the use of such infrastructure is likely to recur.
Signs of Hamas's rehabilitation are also evident in the operational activity of recent weeks. The IDF and Shin Bet have repeatedly reported the elimination of Hamas operatives whom they stated were engaged in "rehabilitating the organization's capabilities" and promoting terror plots. Last month, the IDF struck three weapons depots in the Strip containing weapons, explosives, and anti-tank missiles. According to the IDF, Hamas operatives were identified arriving at the depots and taking weapons.
Meanwhile, the mechanism intended to dismantle Hamas's military capabilities is not yet fully operational. Almost a year after the ceasefire, the alternative Palestinian administration slated to assume responsibility in the Strip has not yet established itself, and the forces meant to integrate into the new security mechanism are not yet prepared to fully implement the plan. In the interim period, the disarmament arrangement is progressing slowly while Hamas continues to rebuild its capabilities.
Against this backdrop, criticism was raised in the cabinet regarding how the Peace Council seeks to advance the implementation of the plan. Minister Orit Strock warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against what she termed the "salami method"—gradual progress in rebuilding the Strip while Hamas's disarmament remains incomplete. Netanyahu responded that he would handle the issue.
Israel's freedom of action in Gaza largely depends on the stance of the White House. While Israel continues targeted operations in the Strip, Israeli intelligence assesses that Hamas believes a return to a broad campaign is unlikely without an American green light. Therefore, Hamas is also calculating the U.S. election cycle and whether the Trump administration's posture toward a broad Israeli operation will shift afterward.
