Poll Shows Eisenkot Leading Ahead of 2026 Elections as Winter Fails to Clear Threshold

A new Lazar Research poll conducted for Walla reveals shifting political dynamics ahead of the 2026 Knesset elections. The joint list led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelecha has crossed the electoral threshold, securing four mandates, while Ofer Winter's Amech Yisrael party failed to enter the parliament.

Mandate Distribution and Bloc Dynamics

At the top of the poll stands the Yashar! party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, with 22 mandates. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party follows with 20 mandates, and Naftali Bennett's BeYachad list reaches 13. The Democrats, led by Yair Golan, win 10 mandates, Yisrael Beytenu led by Avigdor Lieberman takes 9, while Otzma Yehudit, United Torah Judaism, and the Joint Arab List each receive 8 mandates.

"The current political map shows neither bloc reaching the necessary 61-mandate majority, leaving government formation dependent on shifting alliances." — Lazar Research

Shas receives 7 mandates, Religious Zionism-Zehut led by Bezalel Smotrich wins 6, and Ra'am secures 5. Meanwhile, Winter's party garnered only 2.8% of the vote, remaining well below the threshold.

Voter Loyalty and Certainty

The poll also examined voter certainty. Coalition voters displayed higher conviction, with 54% completely sure of their vote compared to 35% among opposition voters. Likud voters demonstrated high loyalty at 68%, whereas Bennett's BeYachad recorded lower certainty, with only 23% completely committed to their choice.