Iran Crisis: Economic Collapse, IRGC Power Struggles, and Escalation Fears
Iran's deep economic crisis is crippling the regime and the IRGC, with top brass reportedly weighing preemptive regional escalation to pressure Washington ahead of U.S. midterm elections.
According to intelligence data, Iran's severe economic crisis is deeply penetrating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, forcing mid-ranking and senior officers to take on secondary jobs to survive.
Iran's leadership is currently dominated by IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi and Basij Commander Hossein Taeb, while figures appearing constantly on television face severe threats. President Masoud Pezeshkian attempts to resign every couple of days, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is constantly reprimanded by top IRGC brass, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has been completely sidelined.
Within the IRGC, assessments indicate that U.S. President Donald Trump intends to strike Iran forcefully following the midterm elections, leading the military elite to consider preemptive escalation. Voices within the IRGC leadership are increasingly advocating for heating up the region over the coming three weeks by targeting significant assets, sharply spiking oil prices, and pressuring Washington ahead of the vote.
Their rationale is that if American strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure are inevitable, launching the opening blow to shock global markets and influence U.S. politics is preferable. The regime's ultimate goal centers entirely on survival at virtually any cost, with the economy having already collapsed.