IDF Prepares for Potential Mega-Earthquake Disaster in 2027 Work Plan
The IDF is preparing for a potential mega-disaster, integrating a major earthquake scenario into its 2027 work plan. Following a century since the last major tremor, the Home Front Command launched emergency drills in hospitals and a public safety campaign.
The IDF is preparing for a potential mega-disaster: a major earthquake striking the region. Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir has ordered preparations for an earthquake scenario to be integrated into the IDF's 2027 work plan.
The decision comes as the last lethal earthquake to hit the region occurred a century ago, in 1927. That quake, centered along the Dead Sea Transform, killed approximately 300 people and injured thousands. Research indicates that a powerful earthquake tends to strike the area roughly every hundred years.
Cities at Risk
Israel has identified 10 cities facing exceptionally high destruction potential: Kiryat Shmona, Hatzor Haglilit, Rosh Pinna, Tiberias, Safed, Afula, Migdal HaEmek, Beit She'an, Arad, and Eilat. These municipalities lie close to the Syrian-African rift and feature a high concentration of aging buildings deemed structurally incapable of withstanding severe seismic activity. The Home Front Command is operating under a reference scenario projecting thousands of casualties in such an event.
Starting in the coming weeks, the Home Front Command will launch a widespread public awareness campaign regarding earthquake safety protocols. Home Front Command guidelines for earthquakes differ drastically from rocket attack instructions; instead of rushing indoors to a protected space, the public is instructed to immediately head outside into open streets.
Hospital Drills and Preparedness
For the first time, a hospital in Israel was drilled on earthquake emergency procedures. The IDF selected the Western Galilee Medical Center in Nahariya for the initial simulation.
Located just kilometers from the Lebanese border, the Nahariya hospital has previously endured rocket fire and routinely shifts patients to underground protected spaces during emergencies. However, during Wednesday's simulation triggered by a simulated earthquake alarm, the hospital deployed outdoors, requiring medical staff to evacuate patients into makeshift field hospital tents set up in the parking lot.
The IDF and the Ministry of Health are activating emergency earthquake directives across all Israeli hospitals. Facilities will undergo a scheduled rotation of drills instructing staff how to evacuate patients to parking lots, tennis courts, and sports fields, and how to absorb massive waves of casualties. Col. Paz Gadia, commander of the Home Front Command's Northern District, led Wednesday's drill while Home Front Command Chief Maj. Gen. Shalev Kleper observed alongside health ministry officials.
"A hospital must know how to function during an earthquake, and that involves much more than just evacuating the initial patients," said Col. Paz Gadia. "We have not faced a scenario like this in recent years. This year marks our preparation for a national reference scenario designated by the Minister of Defense."
Anticipated Casualties and Response
Gadia estimated that the northern region could see thousands of casualties: "In the thousands. Not necessarily fatalities, though I estimate hundreds of dead, but thousands of trapped individuals and severe disruptions to continuity and treatment capabilities." He added that preparing for an earthquake is being conducted concurrently with wartime threats, noting the unique challenge that seismic events have rarely been drilled.
The Home Front Command plans an aggressive public outreach campaign starting in January. While recent security events in Judea and Samaria involved defensive instructions such as "sheltering in place" during drone or infiltration alerts, earthquake protocols require the exact opposite: moving immediately into open spaces to avoid collapsing buildings.
Officials stress that advanced warning will be minimal or non-existent. A seismic tremor grants at most a minute of warning time, leaving little time for preparation before the initial shock strikes.
