Houthi Advances in Bab el-Mandeb Strain Regional Stability and Coalition Unity
Houthi advances along Yemen's western coast and the Bab el-Mandeb strait threaten regional shipping, exposing deep divisions within the anti-Houthi coalition and presenting new strategic dilemmas for Riyadh and Jerusalem.
The Houthi takeover of the Bab el-Mandeb strait is part of a much broader military campaign unfolding across Yemen, raising critical questions about their next strategic move. According to Inbal Nissim-Loboton, a Yemen researcher at the Open University and the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, the anti-Houthi camp remains heavily fractured, allowing the Houthis to press their advantage along the Red Sea coast.
In the northeastern Al-Jawf front, forces backed by Saudi Arabia have managed to hold some positions and control a key supply route used by the Houthis. Further south, Marib remains a vital economic prize due to its rich oil and gas reserves. The Houthis continue to exert pressure on Marib, recognizing that capturing the region would significantly boost their financial and military standing against the internationally recognized government.
The most dramatic recent development has unfolded along the Western Coast. Houthi forces advanced southward along the Red Sea, seizing control of Hays, Al-Khukhah, Al-Mukha, and Al-Dhubab near the Bab el-Mandeb strait. They have also established a presence on Perim Island, as well as the Hanish and Zuqar islands in the Red Sea, severely tightening their chokehold on maritime traffic.
"The control over the Bab el-Mandeb area grants the Houthis much greater freedom of action against vessels," explains Nissim-Loboton. "They will need far less intelligence and sophisticated weaponry to target ships. Even without officially declaring a blockade against the US or Israel, shipping companies will simply avoid the strait.
As the Houthis eye potential further advances toward Aden—the historic capital of South Yemen—experts warn of severe geopolitical implications. Meanwhile, the Saudi-led coalition struggles with internal divisions, corruption, and the lingering challenge of ghost soldiers. While some voices in Israel call for military assistance to Riyadh, analysts caution that Israeli intervention cannot replace a cohesive local strategy, nor will it bypass the core Palestinian issue in normalization talks.
