Cambridge Researchers Warn of Catastrophic Volcanic Eruption Threat
Cambridge researchers warn of a one-in-six chance of a catastrophic volcanic eruption this century, threatening global food supplies and trillions in economic damage.
Researchers from the University of Cambridge warn that humanity faces a one-in-six chance of a catastrophic volcanic eruption in the coming century, comparable to the threat of a large asteroid impact. Despite the severity of this natural threat, global preparedness remains critically low.
The Global Threat of a VEI-7 Eruption
The focus is on a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) level 7, a rare and immensely powerful event capable of releasing massive amounts of ash and sulfur into the atmosphere. Such an emission cools the planet, damages agricultural yields, and destabilizes global food and trade systems. Researchers Michael Cassidy and Lara Mani initially highlighted this one-in-six probability in 2022, but a 2025 UN Global Assessment Report update prepared by Mani reveals a far more alarming picture for the modern world.
A VEI-7 eruption could cause crop losses equivalent to the annual caloric consumption of one billion to 2.9 billion people.
Economic Damages and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
The closest historical analogue is the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia, the last known VEI-7 event, which created the infamous "Year Without a Summer" in 1816. In today's interconnected world of over eight billion people, risk models indicate that a similar event could trigger economic losses of approximately $1.2 trillion to $4.8 trillion within five years. Furthermore, even smaller eruptions in critical geographic locations can disrupt global shipping lanes, sever submarine cables, and paralyze international supply chains, as demonstrated by the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland.
To mitigate these catastrophic risks, scientists urge governments to treat supervolcanoes with the same urgency as near-Earth asteroids by heavily investing in satellite monitoring, geological research, and robust food security contingency plans.
