Many in the Palestinian camp are certain: Hamas has already crossed the Rubicon
Hamas's agreement to surrender its weapons is a surprising and far-reaching step. Although Jerusalem responded with a refusal, the initiative is serious and detailed, and it should be considered with the utmost seriousness.
As is the way with important processes in Israel these days, most of them take place behind the scenes or on the margins of news reports. The past week was a test of our claim, as Israelis, that we are a peace-seeking people. We passed the first stage of the test with a low grade, but do not worry, the window of opportunity has not closed.
US President Donald Trump's announcement of a historic agreement in the Gaza Strip did not come out of nowhere. It was preceded by eight months of tough negotiations between Hamas, the Americans, and the Egyptians. The Hamas leadership stubbornly refused to disarm or hand over its weapons to others, and it seemed that the ambitious project established by the US President was close to collapse.
But then the head of the Hamas political bureau, Khalil al-Hayya, took office. A few days passed, and his people informed the mediators that they agreed to hand over the weapons of the military wing in Gaza, the tunnel maps, and the rocket manufacturing workshops, provided that all these would be handed over to the responsibility of Palestinian hands.
Trump and his team, as well as the countries that were partners in the mediation, saw this as a surprising breakthrough. They rushed to announce the achievement and the new roadmap. Hamas leaders accompanied their agreement to hand over the weapons with several conditions.
First, they demanded that the process be done in a phased manner and in parallel with the withdrawal of IDF forces from the Strip. Their people would hand over their weapons in a certain sector, and in return, the IDF would withdraw from a sector it held. Thus, sector by sector, in exchange for withdrawal, and so on, until the surrender of all types of weapons, and in parallel, a complete withdrawal of the IDF. All this according to pre-determined schedules and geographical areas.
Hamas members would hand over the weapons to the multinational army, which is currently in the process of being established. This army would operate under the responsibility of the Palestinian technocratic government. Hamas leaders demanded that the weapons be destroyed for fear that they would fall into the hands of the IDF. They even spoke with the mediators about ways to destroy them, by melting them down or pouring them into concrete.
For now, the Moroccan army has expressed agreement to send hundreds of its soldiers to fulfill the mission. So has the Ugandan army. Together, this involves several hundred soldiers in the first stage. The Americans claim that other countries have agreed to send soldiers, and they are aiming to fill the ranks with 5,000 of them.
Recently, the construction of a residential village for the soldiers of this army was completed in a "real" IDF camp near Kibbutz Kerem Shalom. According to the plan, the multinational army will take the place of the IDF in the sectors from which it will withdraw and will stand between it and the Palestinian population.
Personal and occupational security
Alongside the multinational army, a new Palestinian police force will be established, which will replace the Hamas police. 2,000 of its members have already been selected, and its activities will be funded by the UAE government. This was the task of the senior Palestinian official Mohammed Dahlan. Both of these bodies will operate under the responsibility of the Palestinian technocratic government that will replace the Hamas regime. Hamas agreed to hand over power to it and consented to the entry of the multinational army and the establishment of the new police force.
15 ministers of this government and its head, the engineer Ali Shaat, have already been appointed, and they are in Cairo waiting for the moment when Israel will allow them to enter the Strip. The new police force will be the law and order arm of the technocratic government. One of its important tasks will be to ensure the safety of Hamas members from acts of revenge. It will also absorb most of them into its various offices to compensate them for the lost livelihood.
Thus, the Peace Council guarantees Hamas members personal security after they get rid of their weapons, and alongside it, occupational security as an incentive to keep them away from engaging in terrorism. In the future, reconciliation committees are also planned to be established to reduce tension in Gazan society.
In addition to all this, the mediators and the White House promised to take care of the disarmament of the pro-Israeli militias. These are four or five armed forces established by the security establishment in the Strip. They operate along the yellow line, dozens of armed men in each enclave.
The idea is that the only weapons in the Strip will be legal, owned by the sovereign only, which is the technocratic government. Regarding the right of association, Hamas will be allowed to exist as a political party only and even to run in elections within the framework of the PA institutions, if it wishes.
Members of the Peace Council are convinced that this is not a Hamas exercise, but a sincere agreement to hand over the weapons with the knowledge that they will not return to their hands. But they know that the real test will be in implementation and not on paper.
Therefore, they drafted a plan that is not built on trust, which does not exist anyway, but on executive commitment. An executive body on their behalf (the Implementation and Verification Council) will oversee both sides and determine whether each of them has fulfilled its part in the required sector. Only after it gives its approval will the other side be asked to take reciprocal action.
The team that drafted the plan includes Tony Blair, the former British Prime Minister, and alongside him, Trump's envoys, who by chance or not are all three Jewish: his son-in-law Jared Kushner, his special envoy Steve Witkoff, and his special advisor Aryeh Lightstone.
Two Israelis were also recruited to the group, the entrepreneur Liran Tankman and the businessman Yakir Gabay. The mediation mechanism includes Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt, and unofficially also the UAE. Israel did not choose all of them, but what can we do. After all, we created the vacuum in Gaza with our own hands. If we did not want others to enter it, we should have led the political moves ourselves.
Worst situation ever
Palestinian commentators and experts on Hamas affairs in the region spent this week trying to explain the step that led al-Hayya. Everyone agrees that the movement's situation is worse than ever. If we compare the fighting in the Strip to a chess game, the IDF has checkmated it. The commanders of the military wing are being constantly crushed without the ability to respond effectively, and if the reality continues as it is, within a few years they will be eliminated anyway.
In the ten months since the ceasefire was announced, 1,200 Palestinians have been killed in the Strip, most of them Hamas militants. Iran, the major military supporter, has weakened and even distanced itself. The public wonders what they have done and demands that they restore the destroyed Strip as quickly as possible.
"Both sides win," a Palestinian journalist who knows the Hamas leadership from the inside told me, "Israel wins the change of government in the Strip and its disarmament, and Hamas wins the Israeli withdrawal and the dismantling of its militias. There is a solution to their employment problem, and from here their path is paved to play a political role."
As of the time of writing these lines (yesterday, Thursday afternoon), the Israeli government has not officially commented on the new roadmap. On Monday, the head of the Gaza Reconstruction Directorate, the Bulgarian diplomat Nickolay Mladenov, landed in Israel. He met with Prime Minister Netanyahu and heard from him a sweeping reservation.
Israel, Netanyahu said, will not withdraw the IDF from the Strip until Hamas is disarmed of all the weapons in its possession. Hamas heard and was alarmed. If they disarm completely, the IDF might act against them and settle scores very easily.
The condition they set - withdrawal from a territory in exchange for handing over weapons in a limited sector and so on - was intended to protect them from such a scenario. Israel responded with a refusal even to the preliminary step set by the roadmap, which is a mutual cessation of all military activity. However, starting from Monday this week, and without announcing it publicly, the IDF has lowered its profile in the fighting in the Strip.
In the history of the conflict, Hamas's declaration of its willingness to hand over its weapons is a surprising crossroads and perhaps also a game changer. And yet, within just three days, sitting face to face with Nickolay Mladenov, Netanyahu rejected the roadmap and took it off the table.
This is a serious and detailed plan, submitted by friends of Israel, and it is right to examine it in depth before we throw its drafters down the stairs. One should also be surprised by the government's efforts to distance the initiative from the public agenda and hide it. Hamas's agreement to deposit the weapons in the hands of others is a noteworthy Israeli achievement, and from our perspective, the continuation of the war by other means.
