Union or loss of votes: The battle that will decide the future of the right-wing parties
Parties hiding at the bottom of the polls are currently far from the electoral threshold, but their fractions of a percent could decide the election. On the way to a possible union, complex negotiations await them regarding ideology, leadership, and positions, against the backdrop of fears that hundreds of thousands of votes will again be thrown away.
While public attention is almost entirely focused on the parties that are crossing the electoral threshold or are at least close to it, at the bottom of the polls published in the media hides a group of parties that will likely decide the election, most of them identified with the right and the national camp.
2026 elections to the 26th Knesset: Mandate polls, block map, and updates
As of now, not only are these parties not crossing the high electoral threshold (3.25%), but they are often very far from it. Despite this, these fractions of a percent will have great importance in the few weeks remaining until the submission of the lists.
The vast majority of them are well aware that they have no chance if they decide to run alone, as most do not even appear in any poll as approaching the electoral threshold. However, this does not mean these fractions are unimportant. They are critical in the conversations and feelers between various players ahead of a possible union. This union will be forced upon them by public pressure, the polls, and the knowledge that many of their potential voters will not want to throw their votes away.
All these players—those already being polled and those yet to enter the race—are now meticulously collecting poll data, documenting it, and arriving with it to the tough and nerve-wracking negotiations that await them. These negotiations will be exhausting. The fundamental question is the degree of ideological compatibility, as well as future coalition intentions. Those who clarify they are part of the national and right-wing camp are not like those who declare they will force a broad government in any case. And those who are willing to see Benjamin Netanyahu as the next prime minister are not like those who rule this out.
However, there are other complex issues. The first is who will head such a union, and consequently, who will receive ministerial positions. Everyone who leads such a list will fight with full force for as high a position as possible in the top four, which is not just a current position, but a potential for a future role. Almost none of the leaders come alone; each has "numbers 2" and "3" to whom they have committed and whom they want by their side. It is not at all certain that these individuals will accept being placed in the back of the top ten, in a spot that is not necessarily realistic.
Furthermore, some come only with the hope of reaching a significant position, rather than being just another member of the Knesset. As an aside, we note that the devaluation of Knesset members deserves a separate discussion on the decline of parliamentarism and its transformation into just a temporary intermediate stage on the way to a ministerial position.
All negotiators need to keep in mind the basic data: the voter registry is expected to reach approximately 7.3 million voters. Assuming 70% turnout, the electoral threshold will stand at more than 165,000 votes. Assuming 75% turnout, we will reach very close to 180,000 votes. To illustrate: if you collect all residents with the right to vote in the cities of Modiin, Shoham, Givat Shmuel, and Givatayim, you still will not reach the electoral threshold.
In the last decade, we have experienced two peaks of votes thrown away, in both cases close to 400,000 votes. Let us not return to that.
***Prof. Asher Cohen is an expert in political science.
