Saudi researcher reveals: How Riyadh manages Iran - and what it demands from Israel

Saudi Arabia has never trusted Iran, but prefers to contain the conflict with it, explains senior Saudi researcher Aziz Al-Ghashian in a special interview with "Hayom".

Alongside this, he warns that the benefits the USA is offering Riyadh on strategic issues like the civilian nuclear program could actually lead it to raise the bar of its demands regarding the Palestinian issue. According to him, the kingdom's tripartite agreement with Turkey and Pakistan is intended primarily to strengthen their status in the Middle East.

In recent months, the Iranian regime has repeatedly attacked Gulf states with missiles and UAVs. Al-Ghashian believes that Saudi Arabia prefers a diplomatic path over a military confrontation with Tehran. However, he clarifies that there is great difficulty in this, as Tehran is gripped by paranoia regarding the countries surrounding it.

Calculated silence

"Saudi Arabia needs to manage the conflict with Iran, contain it, and then change the relations to a better state. This will require many fundamental changes regarding the development of relations. It is very difficult to change these relations with the sanctions that have been imposed. Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia sees Iran as a security threat that has a psychological problem in the region and an anxious temperament, and this is simply not good for its security. These anxieties do not make the situation particularly safe."

Regarding the agreement on a civilian nuclear program, how is Saudi Arabia reacting to Donald Trump's demand regarding its joining the Abraham Accords?

"I think Saudi Arabia reacted with pragmatic silence. They know that Donald Trump is a tweet animal. He is very reactive, so the fact that he said the Saudis should join the Abraham Accords is perceived by them more as a reaction than a real calculation. They will simply keep official silence and let the quiet work take its place. In my opinion, this pragmatic silence conveys how confident they are in achieving their goal."

In the same context, do you think Saudi Arabia is waiting for a change in the Israeli government to renew the discussion on normalization?

"I think the Saudis know that the Palestinian issue is something unacceptable in the political discourse right now in Israel. They know that if there were a different government, perhaps it would have made enough concessions that would have been enough for normalization. They have always kept an eye on the nature of the government. It depends on the government's position regarding what it is willing to do in terms of concessions towards a Palestinian state, and on the question of how this fits with what the USA will offer Saudi Arabia.

The fact that the USA is offering various components that the Saudis see as strategic is very worrying for anyone in Israel who wants normalization with Saudi Arabia. If there are more benefits from the Americans, it apparently means that the government in Israel will be less open to gestures, but the fact that the Saudis are receiving more means that from their perspective, the Israeli government will have to give more."

Houthi threat

In recent days, there has been an escalation in the Yemeni arena. The Houthi terrorist organization has attacked civilian facilities under the control of the Yemeni government forces. Even before that, the Houthis declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia.

"The Saudis do not want something different from the Houthis than what they want from Iran. Basically, they want the Houthis not to attack Saudi Arabia and threaten it. Everyone knows that entering into a dialogue right now is a distant thing, because the Houthis have a lot of leverage in Yemen. Right now we are witnessing a gradual escalation, but the Saudis want to keep the situation under control."

Can the coalition that Saudi Arabia established in the Red Sea reduce the Houthi threat to shipping lanes?

"The maritime coalition is important for several things. Not only is it intended to provide security for the Saudis, but it is a signal to insurance companies, to the economy, and to investors. In my opinion, there is a calculation here related to the markets. The Saudis still need foreign investments. The maritime coalition theoretically makes investments safer. Beyond that, it strengthens the security presence to ensure that the security vacuum is not filled by other actors. There we are now seeing the trilateral cooperation between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. I think we will see more presence there."