Astonishment in Israel: The rapid recovery of Iran's missile arsenal
Almost six months into the war, Israel is expressing growing concern over the pace at which Iran is rebuilding its military capabilities. Intelligence reports indicate that Tehran is restoring its ballistic missile array faster than previously estimated.
Security officials in Israel, including senior figures in the IDF and the Mossad, have expressed surprise at the rapid recovery pace of Iran's military capabilities following the heavy blows dealt since the war began last February, according to a report in the "Jerusalem Post". The IDF has identified a faster-than-expected recovery in several sectors, primarily regarding Tehran's ballistic missile array.
For months, professional experts within the IDF estimated that the extensive damage to Iran's military industry would delay the restoration of capabilities for years. However, the current assessment reveals a different picture, as Iran has managed to restore certain capabilities at a pace that has surprised the defense establishment.
According to the report, over 2,600 targets related to the missile array and military industry were attacked during the war, with Israel and the USA conducting approximately 30,000 strikes in total. IDF sources confirmed that the damage to military infrastructure was extremely extensive. Israeli security officials acknowledge that Iran has found creative ways to focus resources on restoring key weapon systems, even while other parts of the country continue to suffer from significant damage.
Given the current production renewal pace, the central question is no longer just how many missiles remain in Tehran's hands, but how quickly it can replenish its stock. The report notes that if Iran maintains a production rate of 100 to 300 missiles per month, it could restore its arsenal to June 2024 levels by the middle of next year. Even at lower production rates, the consistent restoration of the array could return the threat of Iranian ballistic missiles to the center of Israel's security agenda within a few years.
In response to the "Jerusalem Post", the IDF stated that key components of Iran's military capabilities were significantly damaged during the war, impacting both the regime's ability to deploy its assets and its capacity to restore them to pre-war scope and speed. The IDF continues to monitor Iranian restoration efforts and updates its situation assessments accordingly.
Meanwhile, Mohammad Mokhber, a senior official in the Iranian regime, wrote on his X account:
"The Supreme Leader's final strategy for escalating the war if Iran's conditions are not met will undoubtedly change the global power dynamics. In light of the proven inability of the United States to protect its allies in the Persian Gulf, the most sustainable path to a new regional order lies in implementing the economic security mechanism of the Strait of Hormuz, without dependence on Washington's military guarantees."
