Likud members poll: Tali Gottlieb in third place, Bismuth is the big surprise

A possible shake-up in the Likud list ahead of the primaries: a poll conducted among party members places some of the veteran ministers and Knesset members far from the top, while other names receive particularly high support. If the current situation holds and in a scenario where Likud receives 30 mandates, about half of the serving Knesset members and ministers may not continue to the next Knesset.

The poll, conducted by Dr. Nimrod Nir from the "Agam" Institute, examined the "free voices" among Likud members — that is, without weighting internal deals and the power of organized members. It was conducted between August 6 and August 10 among 1,062 Likud members with voting rights.

Leading the ranking is Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, who receives 73% support among the members who responded to the poll. Following him is Tali Gottlieb with 70%, and in third place is Boaz Bismuth with 69.2%. Eli Cohen is ranked fourth with 64.8%, while Moshe Saada and Amichai Chikli each receive 57.1% support.

Katz in 13th place, Haim Katz with only 6%

The picture is significantly different among some of the veteran names in the party. Defense Minister Israel Katz is ranked according to the members' vote in only 13th place, with 40.5% support. This is after Likud announced that he would be reserved a spot on the list ahead of the primaries, with the reasoning that the move was intended "in order to allow him to deal with security needs and not deal with politics at this time."

Further down the ranking is Nir Barkat in 15th place, Yoav Kisch in 16th place, and Avi Dichter in 18th place. Miki Zohar drops to 26th place with 14.5%, David Bitan is ranked 32nd, while Likud Central Committee Chairman Haim Katz is in 35th place with only 6%.

After weighting the reserved spots and protected places on the list, the Defense Minister's situation is even more prominent: Israel Katz reaches 19th place on the weighted list, a figure that shows the decline in his power among the members who participated in the poll.

30-mandate scenario: only about half may continue

The significance of the poll does not end with the question of who will capture the top spots. About 40 serving Knesset members and ministers on behalf of Likud are competing for spots on the list, and in a scenario where the party receives 30 mandates, only about half of them are expected to continue to the next Knesset — when the calculation also includes those who will not run in the primaries or will enter through reserved spots.

Among the names whose situation is problematic according to the results are Miki Zohar, David Bitan, and Haim Katz, alongside other veteran ministers and Knesset members who are ranked far from the top. At the same time, relatively new candidates are managing to integrate into high places.

However, the poll results do not necessarily reflect the final result in the primaries. At the "Agam" Institute, they emphasize that this is a check of "free voices" only, which does not include the power of organized members and internal deals, which may significantly influence the actual voting.

If, despite this, the picture presented by the poll materializes, the struggle in the Likud primaries is expected to be conducted not only for the high places on the list, but also for the political future of some of the veteran and well-known names in the party.

"No sentiments for veteran Knesset members"

Dr. Nimrod Nir explained the results by the changes that have occurred, according to him, both in the members' preferences and in their composition. "The findings reflect significant changes, both in the preferences of Likud members and in the composition of the members themselves: Likud members who will decide the composition of the party's list for the 26th Knesset are more hawkish and religious than those who chose the Likud list for the 25th Knesset," he stated.

According to him, Likud members "have no sentiments for veteran Knesset members and they are thirsty for new faces. Also, the distance between the composition of the members and Likud voters is growing, as reflected in the differences in the parties' preferences regarding the list and especially the reserved spots. This gap between more hawkish members and more moderate voters justifies the rationale for the reserved spots that Benjamin Netanyahu insisted on."