Nir Barkat: The failed exit that Likudniks cannot forget

On paper, Nir Barkat has everything needed to succeed in politics, just as he did in business. He is a successful businessman who brought the spirit of "exits" to politics, a former mayor of Jerusalem appreciated by the public, and a proponent of a reasoned right-wing economic worldview. Yet, despite the years that have passed since he landed at Metzudat Ze'ev, and despite the enormous resources he invested in embracing field activists, it seems that Barkat has remained in Likud with the status of a temporary resident.

His problem is not a lack of talent, but a lack of trust — not his in himself, but the party's in him. The Likud leadership has always known how to digest "princes" and fighters, but it struggles to digest someone perceived as having jumped in from the outside. The heavy shadow of "Kadima" continues to accompany Barkat like a persistent cloud. He may vehemently deny that historical affiliation, but in the politics of emotion and identity, facts are sometimes less important than the feeling.

For the deep-rooted Likudnik, Barkat always looks a bit too "cosmopolitan," a bit too calculating, and above all, is suspected of holding an alternative plan in his pocket. In recent years, Barkat has done everything to prove that he is "one of them." He traveled the country, participated in countless conferences, and tried to adopt the language of Likud. But the more he tried to get closer, the more the suspicion grew. This is the Barkat paradox: the more effort he invests in being accepted, the more he is perceived as someone trying too hard.

Now, he faces his most significant test. Reports of alleged "putsch" attempts against Benjamin Netanyahu in the days after October 7 fell on fertile ground of distrust. For the Prime Minister's loyalists, these reports (even if vehemently denied by Barkat) were proof of what they always suspected: that Barkat is just waiting for an opportune moment to inherit the chair, driven by personal ambition rather than loyalty to the path.

Barkat finds himself in a trap. If he is silent, he is perceived as weak. If he attacks or tries to demonstrate independence, he is marked as someone undermining the leadership. The criticism against him is not as sharp or venomous as that directed at political opponents from the left; it is simply "tepid" — expressed by a cold shoulder in the corridors of the Knesset and a lack of willingness by activists to truly give him the keys to leadership.

On primary day, the question will not be how much money was invested in the campaign or how many economic plans he presented. The question will be simple: have the Likudniks been convinced that Nir Barkat is truly part of the family, or is he still the polite guest from high-tech who simply rented a room in the shared house? As of now, it seems that the burden of proof is still, and perhaps always will be, on him.