Veteran Pollster Mano Geva Discusses Election Day Exit Poll Methodology
Renowned pollster Mano Geva revealed insights into election day sampling as Israeli voter turnout reached historic highs, with over 1.2 million citizens casting ballots by 10:00 AM.
As polling stations operate across the country with turnout reaching its highest level since 1981, over 1.2 million Israelis cast their votes by 10:00 AM, according to the Central Election Committee. Renowned pollster Mano Geva appeared on a broadcast hosted by Avri Gilad and Erez Tal on Tuesday, offering a rare glimpse behind the scenes of election day polling operations.
Addressing the immense responsibility and expectations surrounding the upcoming exit polls, Geva emphasized the primary goal: "We want to be accurate; that is our biggest aspiration, and to succeed in a big way."
Geva detailed the secure and high-tech process behind data collection, noting that votes from sample polling stations stream in continuously via tablets into a heavily restricted room. "No one sees them. We sit in a special room that no one can enter without permission," he explained.
Discussing the methodology, Geva pointed to a mathematical-statistical model he developed in 1999. "It is the same model that, if people vote identically between the polling station and the sample station, allows us to get real results. It is tested," he said.
When asked about potential discrepancies between exit polls and final results, Geva highlighted variables such as shifting turnout and voter behavior. "Turnout definitely changes things; people might not show up to vote, or they might lie," he noted.
Geva also addressed the differences between his polls and those published by other broadcasters, specifically Channel 14 surveys conducted by Shlomo Filber. Declining to comment on rival methods, he stated, "I can only refer to our polls, which we conduct frequently and in large volume with accumulated data."
Concluding with regard to whether either political bloc would secure a decisive victory, Geva refrained from making predictions, affirming his strict reliance on empirical data: "I do not know, I am a data man, I say what the data says. I am not a predictor, I am not a prophet."
