The obstacle on the way to opening the strait: who really rules Iran?
According to the Wall Street Journal, Arab mediators fear that Tehran's representatives lack sufficient power to ensure that the agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz will be honored. The Revolutionary Guards are demanding immediate economic compensation and threatening to resume attacks on ships, while negotiations are expanding to include the easing of sanctions and the release of Iranian funds.
Arab mediators working to forge an agreement with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz fear that Tehran's representatives in the negotiations do not have enough power to ensure that it will abide by the agreement, even if one is reached. This was reported today, Friday, in the Wall Street Journal. According to them, the Iranian diplomats are under heavy pressure from the Revolutionary Guards and the hardline camp to obtain immediate economic compensation.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf supported a plan whereby traffic in the strait would be divided into an entry lane near Iran and an exit lane near Oman, viewing it as recognition of Tehran's influence on the shipping route. However, the talks became complicated after the Revolutionary Guards demanded that the agreement more explicitly recognize Iran's role and grant it clear benefits.
Even after the mediators distributed a draft agreement in the middle of the week, the Revolutionary Guards continued to demand the right to collect transit fees from ships and clear commitments that the USA would lift the blockade and sanctions on Iranian oil exports. According to the mediators, the Revolutionary Guards, who are praised in Iran for their actions against the USA, are signaling that they could resume increasing attacks on ships if the agreement does not yield sufficient profits.
Following the pressure, the talks were expanded beyond a temporary agreement to resume traffic in the strait, and now they also include steps to alleviate the economic crisis in Iran. Among other things, exemptions from sanctions are being discussed that would allow Tehran to export oil and the release of frozen Iranian funds — measures that were included in the memorandum of understanding signed between the USA and Iran in June, but have been frozen since.
The report illustrates the difficulty of achieving a stable agreement: while Iranian diplomats are seeking urgent economic relief, the Revolutionary Guards and the hardline camp are using the threat to re-escalate activity in the strait to extort further concessions. According to the mediators, the internal dispute raises doubts about whether Iran's representatives will be able to enforce the agreements on all power centers in the country.
