Likud Files Police Complaint Against Gadi Eisenkot Campaign Manager

The Likud party filed a formal police complaint on Monday against Ronen Manelis, the campaign manager for Gadi Eisenkot, alleging violations of the Election Propaganda Law. The complaint claims that Manelis shared data on the social media platform X suggesting Eisenkot holds a high probability of becoming prime minister after the upcoming elections. The complaint was submitted through attorney Ilan Bombach, representing Likud.

At the center of the complaint is a repost made by Manelis on Sunday of a prediction from the Polymarket platform. The English-language post stated that the leader of the Yashar! party and former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot is projected to become Israel's prime minister following Tuesday's elections, succeeding Benjamin Netanyahu. The post displayed data giving Eisenkot a 52 percent chance of securing the post, compared to 28 percent for Netanyahu, accompanied by a photo of Eisenkot in IDF uniform.

According to Likud, the figures are not based on a recognized statistical opinion poll but originate from a prediction market platform. The party argues that Manelis shared the information without clarifying that it does not constitute a statistical survey or reflect actual voter intentions. The data projects political probabilities rather than voter support levels, meaning the 52 percent figure does not indicate that 52 percent of the public intends to vote for Eisenkot.

Attorney Bombach emphasized in the police letter that Likud views the incident not as a mere technical infraction, but as an intentional effort to influence voters through prohibited means. The complaint stresses the severity of the violation given that it was disseminated by a senior campaign manager. Likud urges law enforcement to investigate the matter promptly and take legal action against the offender.

At the same time, the legal classification of Polymarket data as an election poll remains part of Likud's legal interpretation rather than a formal ruling by competent authorities. Whether regulations governing election polls apply to predictive market data is expected to be a central question in evaluating the complaint.