The Lancet Warns of 17 Global Risks Threatening Human Health and Survival
A Lancet commission warns that 17 risks, including nuclear conflict and malicious AI, threaten global health and economic stability, urging coordinated preventive action by 2100.
A new commission by the prominent medical journal The Lancet has published a comprehensive document warning that 17 distinct risks directly threaten human health, economic resilience, national security, and global development. Presented in Berlin during the World Health Summit 2026, the document calls on governments, research funds, and the private sector to adopt a coordinated framework prioritizing the preservation of healthy life years through 2100.
Existential Threats and AI Risks
The commission identifies nuclear conflict and the malicious use of artificial intelligence as risks with potential for human extinction. Using Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs)—a metric reflecting healthy life years lost due to premature death, disease, or disability—the report highlights scenarios where nuclear war or AI-driven biological weapons could end humanity by the end of the century. For example, a nuclear conflict could introduce particles into the upper atmosphere, blocking sunlight and causing widespread global famine. Nevertheless, researchers emphasize that the probability of these extinction scenarios remains low.
Quantifying the Risks to Global Health
Based on data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and compiled with 35 interdisciplinary researchers, the analysis estimates the scope of healthy life years that can be saved:
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Nuclear war: Preventing a nuclear conflict could avert about 133 million deaths by 2100 and save approximately 9.35 billion healthy life years.
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Malicious AI use: Mitigating technological risks could prevent the loss of about 10.4 billion healthy life years.
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Climate change: Limiting global warming to 1.8 degrees Celsius instead of 4.4 degrees would prevent the loss of roughly 1.89 billion healthy life years.
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Obesity and inequality: Comprehensive policies to reduce obesity could prevent the loss of up to 23.1 billion healthy life years, while the burden of income inequality is estimated at 13.8 billion years—an impact 25 times greater than the health loss caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
A Roadmap for Systemic Resilience
Beyond direct existential threats, the report maps a broad spectrum of risks requiring integrated management, including air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, natural pandemics, declining international aid, high blood pressure, alcohol consumption, smoking, poor mental health, and unhealthy aging. To counter these systemic challenges, the commission proposes a three-stage roadmap: building health systems resilient to shocks, accelerating investments in medical and technological innovation, and strengthening early monitoring and prevention tools.
