The list Netanyahu would want — against the "storm of Gottliebism"

The 2026 primaries in Likud were one of the highlights of the entire election campaign even before a single ballot box was opened and a single candidate was chosen for the list. Likud is finishing a full and complete four-year term, which embodies two events of historical magnitude: the judicial revolution that brought the Israeli public to a boiling point not seen in recent years, and the October 7 massacre that created a new and shaking reality for many in the public.

But these primaries are more fascinating than usual not only because of the density and the human story of familiar and veteran ministers and MKs who will have to go home — but mainly around the question of where Likud is headed. The list that will be shaped tomorrow night by 140,000 members will actually be the showcase, the face of the party going forward. All this converges to the 2026 elections, and also keeps Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu awake at night, who knows that the list he presents will have a decisive influence on the general election campaign. In fact, to a large extent, these primaries will prove what is stronger: the 140,000 members who set the tone or the Likudniks outside, the silent majority that arrives in droves to the polls election after election — and gives the party the vote without taking part in its institutions. Between the members inside and the Likudniks outside there is a big, sometimes abysmal difference.

And here, in fact, the first test arises — the "Gottliebism" test. Tali Gottlieb is one of the most popular figures in the party ever without having worked at it in practice. She does not go to events of central committee members, she does not visit the homes of activists and generally presents the antithesis to managing primaries of the type that has been customary in Likud for years. Despite this, she enjoys exceptional support that worries quite a few factors. The term "Gottliebism" was coined by Eliyahu Revivo, the outgoing MK who announced that he would not run in the primaries due to the system that leaves no chance. Revivo used it in a derogatory and critical tone, but in Likud there is a large and broad public that testifies to itself as a fan of Gottliebism and as one that holds her in high regard. Gottlieb brought with her a real hurricane, and even in Netanyahu's office they are still trying to digest the magnitude of the event and estimate its dimensions. Either way, it is clear that with the closing of the polls, one of the key points of the event will be whether Gottlieb, who brought a storm with her, survived the influences or not.

Alongside her, another spotlight will also be turned to the first woman slot in the party. Within a masculine, forceful, and sometimes chauvinistic movement, the battle for the first woman's place has always been a test. Will Minister Miri Regev keep her place or will the influence of the members take it to other districts? Meanwhile, it was revealed tonight on ynet that Netanyahu decided to support Dr. Ruth Kabasa Abramzon for the new woman slot in Likud — this is a few hours before the polls open tomorrow morning. Kabasa Abramzon, a well-known figure on the right who is running for the first time for the prestigious new woman slot reserved for the 34th place on the list, may — so Netanyahu believes — be a refreshing addition to the list he will present. Sources familiar with the details said that in the last few hours, the heads of the branches identified with Netanyahu began to include Abramzon in their recommended lists according to the instruction they received and to delete the other candidates against her.

Another test immediately after the primaries for Ministers Israel Katz and Haim Katz, who skipped the most difficult primary hurdle of recent years and were reserved directly into the list. The central question is where are the faces of Minister Israel Katz, who is currently sitting on the fence in the sense of "let the boys play before me", and of Minister Haim Katz, who became, intentionally or not, an administrative arm of the Likud list and helped Netanyahu dismantle and reassemble it. Alongside Gottlieb, in the center of attention in recent days is also Minister Nir Barkat — who was reported to have tried to oust PM Netanyahu immediately after October 7. Barkat denied what was attributed to him and his people even tried to coordinate a meeting with Netanyahu. However, the office rejected the request and replied that there is no need for it. Therefore, despite the attempts to clarify the issue, Barkat will have to deal with managing the event until the last moment, while dealing with the primaries. Also the status of MK David Bitan, who upgraded his political power in the current term, interests many. MK Bitan recently presented firm opposition to Netanyahu's outlines for reservations on the list, and even confronted him in the party's constitution committee.

Anyone who has worked with Netanyahu over the years knows how to tell that the indifference he projects towards the primaries and the candidates is only a false pretense. Large recruiters and mayors identified with him hold regular consultations with him on election day before they formulate the list. Usually, already with the closing of the polls, Netanyahu knows which way the wind is blowing and how many candidates he holds dear have taken a place in the Knesset. But this time, even for him, it is a more critical test than ever. While the future of Likud in the next term is still shrouded in fog, Netanyahu needs a tight, disciplined, loyal and such — if possible — also statesmanlike list more than ever.