The deadline for closing the lists is approaching - and the panic in Netanyahu's camp is growing: "Meretz trauma"

Shortly before the final closing of the lists at the Central Elections Committee, the deadlock surrounding the "floating" mandates – mainly in the soft-right areas – is still far from a solution. Ofer Winter is expected to announce on Tuesday the establishment of his party, but in the political system, it is still difficult to assess whether this is a game-changer, a party that will manage to stably pass the electoral threshold, or just another framework that will find itself below it – alongside other party fragments that have emerged recently, mainly in the right-wing bloc, but not only there.

Winter is sending a message that his commitment and responsibility are towards the right-wing camp. In other words, one can understand from his words that if he sees that he is not passing the electoral threshold, he will withdraw or unite. If he passes the electoral threshold, but it turns out that his statements or the very fact of his running cause another party on the Right to remain outside, the message he is conveying is that even in such a case he will act responsibly: it is possible that he will try to join that party to him or create another constellation that will prevent damage to the bloc and loss of votes, even if he himself is not directly responsible for it.

In the environment of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, they treat Winter with great suspicion. Netanyahu's people have almost no contact with Winter or his people, and the fear there is that Winter – who has been sharply attacking Gadi Eisenkot recently – may eventually join the other bloc and cooperate with Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, even if not with Eisenkot himself.

In the absence of contact between the parties, it is difficult to know where things are going. It is likely that Winter is intentionally keeping his distance from Netanyahu's people, as he seeks to absorb voters who are disappointed with the coalition. He does not want to be perceived as someone who is coordinated with the Prime Minister, when his target audience is exactly those who are disappointed with Netanyahu or his other partners, including Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir.

Not just Winter: a multitude of parties on the Right

Winter is just one of several players trying to absorb various versions of right-wing voters, who according to the polls are currently not giving their vote to one of the coalition parties. Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein, who announced the establishment of the Unity Party, are also trying to appeal to a right-wing audience and present themselves as a right-wing party. Alongside them are Moshe Feiglin and Michael Ben-Ari, who announced a joint run, as well as the Noam party, which still does not have a clear political home and is conducting a campaign as if it intends to run alone. Amir Avivi also voiced intentions of establishing a party, but at this stage, it is still unclear where he is headed.

Netanyahu is supposed to try to collect all these fragments in the short time remaining until September 8, in order to bring the bloc to the elections in the best possible way for him: without losing votes and without relying on a party that will eventually not pass the electoral threshold – as happened to the left-wing bloc with Meretz in the last elections.

On the other hand, Netanyahu also does not want to lend a hand to parties that may eventually join the rival bloc. Therefore, he is in a great dilemma. His ability to act before the polls stabilize and before a real picture of who is rising and who is falling is revealed – especially following Winter's entry into the field – is very limited at this stage. Therefore, the assessment is that the moves will likely be closed at the last minute.

In the other bloc, they are also trying to be saved from the electoral threshold

On the other side, it is also not really quiet ahead of the closing of the lists. Benny Gantz's party, which also calls for unity to some extent, is below the electoral threshold. One of the possibilities is a connection with Gilad Erdan: the two present more or less a similar agenda, although Erdan is trying at this stage to market himself as Right more distinctly than Gantz. If there is no choice, it is possible that eventually the two will go together.

Yoaz Hendel and Chili Tropper are also not really taking off. The two tried to present themselves as a centrist party, but a video published by Tropper, in which he clarified that in any case they would not sit in a government under Netanyahu, effectively took them out of the "third bloc" and moved them more distinctly to the opposition bloc. The impact of this video is still unclear.

Here too, as the date for closing the lists approaches, last-minute connections are possible – in an attempt to be saved from the cruel fate dictated by the high electoral threshold.