Israel must prepare for the day when America is simply not there | Alex Nahumson

There is a simple truth that Israel must internalize: a country that is unable to defend itself is not truly independent. This does not diminish the importance of the alliance with the United States, which is one of Israel's most important security assets. But alliances are a force multiplier, not a substitute for independent power. Every country has its own interests, its own politics, and its own boundaries.

The American conduct in the campaign against Iran illustrated this well. It is possible to embark on a joint campaign and act to achieve common goals — and then reach a turning point where political interest changes. In this case, stopping the fighting, striving for a deal at almost any price, and allowing the enemy to recover. If Iran can rehabilitate its economy, renew its nuclear capabilities, restore its missile systems, and return to the arena stronger, then the campaign did not solve the problem. It only postponed the next round.

Israel must ensure energy independence for itself even under conditions of prolonged war: electricity, fuel, gas, and alternative sources. There is a need for strategic stocks, decentralization, storage, and protection of infrastructure. Energy is a security asset, not just an economic resource. War consumes ammunition at a tremendous rate. Missiles, interceptors, bombs, shells, drones, spare parts, and electronic components are consumable inventory. Israel cannot reach a situation where, precisely in times of war, it is dependent on the factories and decisions of a foreign government. It is necessary to dramatically increase local defense production, maintain strategic stocks, and build the capability to expand production quickly in an emergency.

Israel can no longer settle for a small army based on the assumption that wars will be short and precise. A prolonged campaign on several fronts requires mass: land, air, sea, intelligence, air defense, cyber, logistics, and a broad reserve system. Reserves are also not an unlimited resource. If Israel wants the ability to endure for a long time, it must build it in advance — in manpower, in equipment, in ammunition, in support systems, and especially in utilizing every human potential for combat and other roles.

In every strategic plan, Israel needs to ask a simple question: what will our situation be if tomorrow morning our most important ally decides not to provide significant assistance in thwarting threats? If the answer is that Israel will be left without the stamina to conduct an effective campaign for its defense, then its national security is built on a shaky foundation.

American aid should continue. Intelligence cooperation should continue. The alliance should be strengthened. But Israel must strive for a situation where the cessation of aid does not paralyze it. If a moment arrives when the ally decides to leave the battlefield, Israel must be able to continue alone. Strategic independence is not a luxury. It is a condition for survival.

The author is a member of the board of "Mivtachim" — a forum of national commanders.