Iran Threatens Vessels in Hormuz as Oil Tanker Attacks Surge
A new wave of vessel attacks near the Strait of Hormuz threatens global oil supplies as Iran issues severe warnings. Brent crude prices climbed toward 102.25 dollars per barrel amid soaring logistical costs and depleted external Iranian reserves.
A new wave of seven vessel attacks near the Strait of Hormuz has been reported since September 28 by the UKMTO agency of the British Royal Navy. After Gulf energy companies managed to restore crude shipments almost to pre-war levels using a costly shuttle system under US Navy protection, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a severe threat via public communication channels, demanding that ships avoid trusting the US Navy and refrain from using the southern corridor under threat of attack and destruction, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.
Escalation in the Gulf
The renewed surge in oil exports was achieved thanks to an extensive US escort operation and previous damage sustained by Iranian radars and communication posts along the strait. However, countries like the United Arab Emirates were forced to establish an extremely complex and expensive logistics system of shuttles. Tankers load oil inside the Persian Gulf, exit through the strait, and transfer the crude to vessels waiting outside dangerous waters.
According to maritime broker estimates, the cost of such a round trip ranges between 30 and 40 million dollars, about 15 to 20 dollars per barrel, even before calculating high insurance costs. Among the tankers recently attacked are oil giants such as Al Funtas, which performed its fifth rotation and was attacked on September 28, and Kazimah III, hit on October 1, both operated by the Kuwait Oil Tanker Company and capable of carrying up to two million barrels each. At least four of the seven tankers attacked this week completed two or more round trips since June.
Market Impact and Threats
According to a US official, Tehran's strike capabilities in the strait have recovered and improved recently. The US previously considered attacking Iranian oil tankers in response, but backed down after Iran fired missile salvos at a US base in Jordan.
"Any further damage to infrastructure will send prices soaring and severely impact the global economy," warn market analysts.
Another critical pressure point is unfolding right now: market estimates indicate that Iran's stored and available oil inventory outside the country is set to run out this week. This complete depletion of external reserves raises severe concerns among analysts that Iran will exploit the situation to dramatically escalate maritime attacks or target regional infrastructure in a desperate attempt to break the blockade or create new leverage.
Saudi Arabia attempted to hedge itself by diverting some exports through the East-West pipeline and the Yanbu port on the Red Sea, a move that raised Saudi exports to about 6.9 million barrels per day in September, compared to 2.45 million in August, though the pipeline still operates below full capacity.
Markets are reacting with severe concern: Brent crude oil prices climbed toward 102.25 dollars per barrel, rising about 5% over the week, and firms like Capital Economics and Standard Chartered predict prices will remain around 100 dollars per barrel until the end of the year. US President Donald Trump is now reconsidering military steps against Tehran, while economists warn that any further infrastructure damage will severely shock the global economy.
