Gadi Eisenkot Leads Benjamin Netanyahu in Global Betting Market for Israel's Next PM
Polymarket bettors place Gadi Eisenkot as the frontrunner for Israel's next prime minister with a 51% probability, while Benjamin Netanyahu trails at 30% as a new Kan 11 poll shows the Yashar! party leading with 23 seats.
The global betting market has identified a clear frontrunner for the position of Israel's next prime minister. On Polymarket, the world's largest prediction platform, where the total betting volume on this race has surpassed $36 million, former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar! party, holds a commanding lead with a 51% chance of securing the premiership.
Incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu follows in second place with a 30% probability. This marks a significant decline from his peak in March, when his chances exceeded 60%. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who briefly led the betting market in May during a tight race with Benjamin Netanyahu, has experienced a sharp decline and now sits in third place with 8%. Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beytenu party, occupies the fourth spot with 6%.
Emerging Candidates and Betting Odds
Ofer Winter, the retired IDF brigadier general who recently entered the political arena with his "Amcha Yisrael" party, has surged to fifth place with a 2% probability. Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of the Otzma Yehudit party, stands at 1%. All other potential candidates on the platform register at under 1%.
Latest Parliamentary Poll Projections
These betting trends align with a new Kan 11 poll published yesterday, which projects the following seat distribution for the 120-seat Knesset:
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Yashar! (led by Gadi Eisenkot): 23 seats
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Likud (led by Benjamin Netanyahu): 20 seats
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BeYachad (the joint list of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid): 13 seats
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The Democrats (led by Yair Golan): 8 seats
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United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudit, Yisrael Beytenu, and Hadash-Ta'al: 7 seats each
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Ra'am and Religious Zionism: 6 seats each
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Amcha Yisrael (led by Ofer Winter): 4 seats
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Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelecha's joint list: 4 seats
Bloc Distribution
In terms of political blocs, the current ruling coalition is projected to win 52 seats, compared to 51 seats for the opposition. Arab parties (Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am) account for 13 seats combined, while the newly formed alliance of Yoaz Hendel and Professor Yaron Zelecha holds the remaining 4 seats.
