Political deterrence for years: The rioters in Qusra are trying to sear a trauma

The clashes between the security forces and the Jewish rioters who besieged the Palestinian village of Qusra have a political reason and goal. The Jewish rioters, who receive explicit backing from Minister of Defense Israel Katz and Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich, are trying to create deterrence that will allow them to continue operating even after the elections, if the current coalition loses power.

There is a precedent for this: in 2017, the settlers in the illegal part of the Amona outpost tried to create the same deterrence by mass mobilization of young people with nationalist-religious ideology, and settlers who clashed with the security forces who came to carry out the Supreme Court order to evacuate Amona. The physical clashes in Amona lasted seven hours, and during them dozens of police officers and dozens of settlers were injured, some of them seriously. The Jewish rioters said then explicitly that their intention was to sear a trauma into the consciousness of the government and the security forces, which would deter them from evacuating other illegal settlements in Judea and Samaria.

This is exactly the goal of the Jewish rioters who are now besieging the Palestinian village of Qusra: they are trying to cause its inhabitants to abandon their homes and flee, and at the same time they are clashing with the security forces to sear a trauma into the consciousness of the IDF and police commanders, which will deter them from interfering with the Jewish rioters even if the government in the State of Israel changes after October 27.

I cannot say if this was the rioters' goal from the start when they set up the illegal outpost opposite the houses of the village of Qusra, but the sequence of events on the ground proves that what started as just another incident of Jewish terror among many, turned into a test of strength between the IDF and the police - the law enforcement authorities in Judea and Samaria - and the rioters and their political supporters, led by the Minister of Defense, the Minister of Finance, and other government ministers.

The siege on the house in Qusra began a few days ago, and it was immediately reported in the media, including on social networks, that military personnel in uniform, probably reservists from the territorial defense battalions, are participating in the siege and praying in the illegal outpost that was established with their weapons and uniforms together with the rioters. The video is unequivocal. This happened a few days ago already, and in the media there was a demand, supported by the opposition in the Knesset, that the IDF put an end to the rioters' assault on the village of Qusra which was escalating, and also bring to justice the uniformed personnel who gave their sponsorship and secured the event with their weapons. 24 hours passed, 48 hours passed, and none of this happened. The IDF Spokesperson issued a condemnation in weak language and nothing more.

Meanwhile, the rioters had already entered the village of Qusra itself, scattered rock fragments, stones, and nails on the main road, and prevented the residents from leaving their homes. There is no doubt that the fact that the IDF did not handle the event quickly and decisively together with the police immediately at its beginning, caused the rioters to understand that the authorities are giving them backing or at the very least prefer to turn a blind eye. And therefore, the rioting escalated both in geographical scope and in the number of rioters who flocked to Qusra ahead of the test-clash that would come with the security forces.

In the events of 1936-1939, during which masses of Palestinian Arabs carried out pogroms against the Jews of Mandatory Palestine, the rioters shouted while murdering Jews in Hebron and other cities: "Al-Dawla ma'ana" - in Hebrew, "The government is with us". And this is apparently also what the Jewish rioters felt almost 100 years later, and therefore allowed themselves. Moreover, there are clear signs that the rioters received help with information and warnings from within the operational mechanisms of the IDF and the police. For example, an ambulance that tried to enter the village with Israelis inside who were trying to help the Palestinians was stopped by the security forces, and its passengers were removed. And it is clear that there was prior information for the security forces in the area, who did not interfere with the rioters, but knew how to stop a Palestinian ambulance on its way to the village and knew who its occupants were.

The very fact that an illegal outpost is established in a Palestinian village without the security forces intervening immediately to stop the event that was escalating, indicates that someone from above gave an order not to rush. Was it Minister of Defense Katz, who happened to publish a propaganda video the day before yesterday that illustrates the wave of establishing outposts and farms, most of them illegal, which is done under his sponsorship - a video intended to improve his position in the primaries. Or perhaps it was the Minister of Finance, who constantly bothers to boast about the outposts and farms that were established on his initiative, mostly without approval. And perhaps it was the regional commander, and perhaps the Chief of Staff, who out of fear of a confrontation with the political echelon tried to solve the value and functional crisis that was created through persuasion and other "soft" measures.

Even today, when the regional commander and the Judea and Samaria Police commander finally went out for a tour in the field, and when significant forces entered the area of the village of Qusra to dismantle the outpost, there was prior warning that they do not deny its existence. The rioters had time to prepare and get ready for a confrontation with the IDF and police forces that came to evacuate them. They also drew encouragement from the fact that in the last 48 hours, under the direct leadership of Minister of Defense Katz and Minister of Finance Smotrich, dozens of demolitions of illegal Palestinian structures were carried out in the northern Samaria, to make room for new Israeli settlements that will be established at the government's initiative.

All the pieces in this puzzle add up to a clear picture of the situation, in which the Jewish rioters on the ground, the security officials, and especially the political echelon in the current government are cooperating to achieve two political goals. In the long term - to cause the Palestinians who are residents of the area to leave of their own free will and emigrate, and to establish Israeli settlements on their lands. In the short term - to create deterrence through trauma that will be seared into the IDF, the police, and those who are politically in charge of them, which will prevent a policy change that will tie the rioters' hands, and will stop the illegal farms - even if the current coalition is no longer in power.