Listen carefully to Zini — he is warning about Bibi's friends | Dan Perry

These days, warnings are being heard about the danger of foreign interference in the upcoming elections in Israel. It is interesting that the controversial head of the Shin Bet, David Zini, was the one who put the issue on the agenda — because the situation is deceptive and the danger is exactly the opposite of what many think. I wonder if he himself understands.

When almost every poll indicates that the incumbent coalition is expected to lose the election, it is hard to avoid the suspicion that its devious members are laying the groundwork for challenging the legitimacy of the result. As I have already written, it is highly likely that Benjamin Netanyahu will try to implement some version of Donald Trump's plan after his loss in 2020: flooding the space with false claims of irregularities in the hope of undermining public trust in the process.

In our parliamentary country, with the complications of "forming a government," the goal will be to create such agitation that it will deter the change bloc from forming a government that would rely on the votes of an Arab party. Thus, perhaps, the wife will somehow remain in her seat, and domestic peace will be preserved.

The threat of foreign interference is not imaginary — on the contrary. Liberal democracies around the world have already learned that elections have become a major target for sophisticated influence operations, conducted through social networks, artificial intelligence, coordinated networks of fake accounts, deepfake videos, and the systematic amplification of existing political rifts. The Israeli voting system using paper ballots makes direct manipulation of the vote count difficult — but distorting public opinion is an entirely different matter.

The real question is not whether hostile foreign powers will try to interfere in Israel's elections. They almost certainly will. The more interesting question is in whose favor they are likely to act. And here the answer is clearer and less expected than much of the public discussion suggests.

Foreign interference will likely come from the "usual suspects" — Russia, Iran, and perhaps also Qatar and other countries, which in recent years have invested more and more in influence operations as a key tool of their foreign policy. Such operations tend to exploit feelings of deprivation and frustration, reward the most extreme voices, deepen distrust, and encourage polarization.

Their goal, in general, is to make democratic societies more divided, harder to govern, and less capable of formulating consistent policy. The strategic aspiration is to harm the target countries and cut them off from their allies, so that they are weak and isolated. This is the desired state for autocracies — instead of a strong, stable, and cohesive democratic world.

In the Israeli case, this logic leads in only one direction. And this is the interesting part. One might have thought that our enemies would naturally want to weaken the current government — since it is truly hated around the world — and therefore would help its rivals. This is an understandable, but superficial and wrong assumption. Russia's record illustrates exactly why.

Across Europe and North America, Moscow has repeatedly supported the populist right — that of "the people" against the "elites." All its bots and algorithms have been recruited in favor of political actors who weaken democratic institutions, undermine trust in elections, challenge traditional alliances, attack independent media, and deepen internal polarization.

In the USA, intelligence agencies concluded that Russian interference in the 2016 election clearly benefited Trump. Viktor Orban's Hungary has become Russia's closest partner within the European Union. In Romania, Euro-skeptic right-wing candidates received a huge boost from Russia about two years ago. Moldova has repeatedly faced Russian attempts to weaken the pro-Western government of President Maia Sandu. In Armenia, Russia this year supported those seeking to reverse the pro-Western direction of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The cases are different, but the strategic pattern remains remarkably constant. It is about strengthening right-wing governments that weaken their countries.

Real science

Through this lens, Israel presents an especially simple case: from the perspective of Moscow (or its ally in Tehran), the current Israeli government is responsible for the deepest diplomatic isolation of Israel in generations. If it remains, it is a real state of emergency for the Jewish state, which will send its enemies into an ecstasy that will last for months.

Apparently, why would they be happy? After all, Bibi is risking his life in the war against them, and the ultra-Orthodox are praying very hard. So here it is: relations with allies have deteriorated dramatically; in Western European public opinion, Israel is an outcast, especially among the younger generation; in the USA — without which Israel would be in existential danger — 60% of the public currently hold a negative opinion of Israel, compared to a large majority that supported it just a few years earlier; and in addition, Israel is facing unprecedented legal and diplomatic pressure on the international stage.

It does not stop at foreign policy — hostile countries know well the internal fault lines of Israeli society. They understand the intensity of the disputes over the "judicial reform," military service, religion-state relations, the settlements, and relations between Jews and Arabs. They certainly understand that the government is preventing reforms in the ultra-Orthodox sector in a way that constitutes an existential threat. Negative migration is on the rise; one more term of Bibi and it will become a flood.

These developments do not serve Israel's national interest, but rather give a huge gift to its enemies. Even if one accepts the claim that the government's actions have weakened Hezbollah or Hamas, it is clear that Israel's overall strategic position is in bad shape.

Israel's enemies have no reason to wish for a government that will restore international alliances, return internal political stability, fix the situation with the ultra-Orthodox, fight organized crime, strengthen democratic institutions, and expand Israel's international legitimacy. From their point of view, conditions that make Israel today weaker, more divided, and more isolated are far preferable.

Ask what about the concern for the Palestinians — don't Israel's enemies fear that the right will take more land from them and build more settlements and then they will be very sad? Not particularly. Since they know how to count, they estimate that this will bring Israel closer to a binational reality that will destroy Zionism. It is true that the extreme right-wing Kahanists, who are slightly smarter than the Likud, dream of transfer — but even that is a blessing: such a move will finally destroy Israel's standing, including in the USA. In short, Bibi has friends.

How will this be done? The examples mentioned earlier show that today it is already a real science. Publics in target countries are exposed to a massive hit of false content on social networks that looks completely authentic. Anonymous accounts, coordinated amplification, images created using artificial intelligence, videos designed to evoke emotional reactions, and targeted algorithms — all these create an environment in which anger spreads. They will try to deepen the polarization through incessant repetition, with the goal of making every potential right-wing voter arrive at the ballot box angry, convinced that he is fighting the devil incarnate, and filled with motivation to vote.

If Israel were still a country where the Shin Bet was independent of politics, there would be room to take Zini's warning with full seriousness — and expect action. There are ways to neutralize the threat — ask the Romanians, who figured it all out, but with some delay, and held repeat elections.

The Shin Bet must expose and thwart foreign influence operations regardless of the identity of those being supported. Even if foreign interference were helping the coalition parties, the security establishment would have to pursue it with the same determination it would have acted if the beneficiary were Ahmad Tibi. But I ask you, dear readers: what is the chance that this will happen? Will the wife allow it?