To each his own

The call made by Jared Kushner, President Trump's son-in-law, on the occasion of the sixth anniversary of the Abraham Accords, should be taken very seriously by Israel. Kushner wrote: "The Middle East is once again at a turning point. There are currently breakthrough opportunities that many would argue are impossible. We surprised the world once. With the right leadership, focus, patience, and courage, I believe we can do it again."

I do not know in which arena Kushner expects a breakthrough move. In Gaza, there is welcome activity by the "Peace Council," but progress toward the demilitarization of the Strip is expected to be, if it happens at all, slow and frustrating. Syria? The new president, Al-Sharaa, shows moderation and seriousness, but has not yet provided a hint regarding his recognition that Israel will never disengage from the Golan Heights. Saudi Arabia had already signaled before the October 7 massacre its willingness to be a partner in the major move initiated by the Biden administration, but in the years that have passed since, the trend has changed in a way that leaves no room for excessive optimism.

Lebanon remains. If that is where Kushner is aiming, he is absolutely right. I will remind you of the past: remember the name very well. Hochstein. Amos Hochstein. When the leaders of Israel and Lebanon sit on both sides of President Trump and sign the peace agreement between the countries, you will not see Amos in the picture. As someone who served as a special envoy only under Democratic presidents, the doors of the White House will remain locked to him at least until January 2029. But it is impossible to imagine such a possible agreement without the tireless efforts invested by the American envoy of Obama and Biden in order to shape a new reality in the relations between Lebanon and Israel.

It began with his unique contribution to the signing of the agreement on the demarcation of the maritime border between the countries on October 27, 2022. This agreement, as you recall, was criticized due to the fact that the government at the time refrained, despite the recommendation of the Attorney General, from bringing it for approval by the Knesset, but even the current government did not act to change it. In practice, the agreements between the countries regarding their economic rights in the event that gas deposits are found near them have not been realized so far, after a number of experimental drillings carried out off the coast of Lebanon did not find signs of gas in commercial quantities. However, one could draw encouragement from the success of the mediator Hochstein in reaching a common denominator between Israel and Lebanon on a sensitive issue that had been disputed for many years.

This was a starting point for the next challenge that arrived in 2024, after about a year of intense fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Hochstein held, with the blessing of the American administration, shuttle trips between Jerusalem and Beirut in an attempt to overcome three dramatic obstacles: in Lebanon, there was no clear address for dialogue after the parliament failed for over two years in its efforts to elect a president; the elimination of Nasrallah in September 2024 shook Hezbollah and made it difficult for it to conduct a rational dialogue with the political forces in Lebanon; and in the background, the collapse of Resolution 1701, which was adopted in 2006 by the UN Security Council, was constantly hovering.

In his meetings with the Israeli team, Hochstein clarified how he intended to overcome these difficulties. He believed in his ability to harness the veteran leader of the Shiite 'Amal' movement, Nabih Berri, who in the absence of a president and in the vacuum created after the disappearance of Nasrallah, became a central figure in shaping his country's policy. To our skepticism regarding the possibility that Berri, supported by Iran, would support decisions that are not dictated by or at least serve the Shiite terrorist organization, Hochstein replied that he is convinced that Berri is committed first and foremost to general Lebanese interests. Regarding the fear of a recurrence of Resolution 1701, which was violated from the moment of its birth, Hochstein expressed support for the Israeli demand for operational freedom that would allow the IDF to resolutely enforce the agreement without dependence on Lebanese or American consent. And regarding the expected opposition from Hezbollah, the American mediator believed that precisely now, at a time when the status of the pro-Iranian organization is weaker than ever, the rival Lebanese forces would be able to ignore it. This forecast indeed materialized in the following weeks, and thus the ceasefire agreement came into being.

The text of the agreement effectively legalized, for an indefinite period of time, the continuation of Israel's military presence in five defensive complexes north of its border with Lebanon, and its right to continue attacking the terrorist organization's operatives and its infrastructure as long as the terms of the agreement are violated. Israel indeed acted in this spirit without interference and eliminated hundreds of terrorists who returned to their old ways.

In the two years that have passed since the signing of the agreement, five regional and global events of strategic significance have occurred: Donald Trump was elected for a second term in the USA; the Assad regime fell and his successor in Syria sees Iran and Hezbollah as sworn enemies; the renewal of the confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah against the backdrop of the campaign against Iran led to an Israeli takeover of vast areas in southern Lebanon; Joseph Aoun, a strong and pro-Western Christian leader, was elected president of Lebanon; and at the initiative of the American president and his Secretary of State Rubio, a "tripartite framework agreement" was signed in Washington last June between the USA, Israel, and Lebanon, which paves the way for a historic change in the relations between the countries.

The bottom line that summarizes everything detailed above is one: there is currently a space that allows for the completion of the political process with the Lebanese government. Precious months should not be lost waiting for elections and the political process that will take place in light of their results. Both countries have a clear interest in utilizing the current American attention to the issue, as there is no way to predict what President Trump's policy will be after the congressional elections in November. And most importantly: all disputes between the two countries can be bridged. There is no refugee issue, no holy places, no Hebrew settlement in the land of the fathers, no bloody historical grievances. The deep problem stems, of course, from Hezbollah's opposition, and this is what the parties must focus on while showing good will, political wisdom, and outlining red lines that will allow for informed risk management. Amos Hochstein is no longer in the picture, but his creative and energetic legacy can be adopted.