Carasso CEO Dan Paran Addresses Real Estate Challenges, Emigration, and Housing Trends
Carasso Real Estate CEO Dan Paran discussed housing market trends, emigration impacts, and foreign labor at a Globes event, advocating for institutional renting to ease affordability.
Thousands of young investors attending the investment generation festival organized by the Financial House in collaboration with Globes expressed deep confidence in stocks. However, when it came to real estate, the majority anticipated that prices would continue to fall into the coming year. Consequently, Dan Paran, CEO of Carasso Real Estate, faced a challenging task during his panel appearance moderated by Globes deputy editor Dror Marmor.
"Our sector is dealing with a massive number of challenges thrown at our doorstep," Paran said. "We can point to social division, the security situation that abruptly stripped away all Palestinian labor, and the crisis with Turkey that halted imports."
Asked whether interest rates were the primary concern, Paran noted that while rates surged in 2023 and brought the market to a halt, forcing all players to recalculate, 2024 proved to be a strong sales year as the industry adapted. "This is the new normal, and we have gotten used to it. I am not worried about that," he stated.
Carasso, a residential development company, stands out in the Israeli market for never having purchased land from the Israel Land Authority, relying exclusively on private landowners. Paran attributes the downward pressure on prices over the past two years primarily to demographics and emigration.
"Until 2023 inclusive, the population here grew at a rate of close to 2% annually, which provided a lot of momentum. But now that has changed, with the central parameter being emigration—a gap of 80,000 people leaving every year. While we used to build for 70,000 units sold annually, there are now fewer households consuming housing. This is what we experienced in 2024-2025, and in my assessment also in 2026. However, we are increasing our production pace because we are convinced this is not the permanent new normal. We will continue to grow, and demand will follow."
Commenting on the ongoing absence of Palestinian workers since October 8, Paran expressed relative calm. "It took the state time, but today there is no significant shortage of foreign workers. True, workers arriving from India and Sri Lanka need to be trained, and some have never worked on a construction site, but we will manage without Palestinians. I prefer foreign workers because they work longer hours and do not cause sabotage."
Addressing geographical risk diversification, Paran explained that avoiding government land tenders allows Carasso to be selective. "What interests us everywhere is examining whether there is a relevant market and demand, and whether we expect demand when we go to market. That is how we reached the Jesse Cohen neighborhood in Holon and Bat Galim in Haifa." Regarding Tel Aviv, he remains confident: "I am not writing off Tel Aviv. It is the center of business, culture, sport, and leisure in Israel, and it is undergoing a revolution with transportation infrastructure. I do not see another city on the horizon that can compete with it."
To tackle housing affordability, Paran advocated for institutional renting as the most realistic solution. "Apartment prices are out of reach—the best realistic solution is institutional renting. This is the real solution for young people so they do not enslave themselves to mortgages, renting an apartment from an institutional body at fair prices. This is the first thing the next government must do to solve the crisis."
Paran also criticized the Central Bureau of Statistics for failing to accurately track housing prices by ignoring payment terms such as aggressive 20/80 promotional financing schemes. He expects demographics to re-balance around 2027, paving the way for a market trend reversal.
