Poll Shows Bennett Rising to 14 Mandates Ahead of Israel's Knesset Elections
A Kantar poll shows Naftali Bennett rising to 14 mandates as the Change Bloc navigates shifting dynamics, rising Arab voter turnout, and tight electoral margins ahead of the October 2026 Knesset elections.
Naftali Bennett's recent political maneuvering and shift to the left appear to be yielding results, according to a poll conducted by the Kantar Institute for Israel Hayom. The survey, carried out on October 21-22, 2026, sampled 1,110 eligible voters, reflecting a double sample size with a margin of error of 3.0%.
Shifting Dynamics in the Change Bloc
Bennett's party rose to 14 mandates, drawing support from Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar! party, which stands at 23 mandates, and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu, which dropped to 7 mandates. While Bennett is unlikely to secure the premiership in this round, his rise significantly curtails Eisenkot's path to forming a government.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud holds steady at 21 mandates. Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit slips to 8 mandates, and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism hovers at 6 mandates.
The Impact of Arab Sector Turnout
Beyond the traditional blocs, increased political engagement in the Arab sector projects a turnout of around 60%, translating to 14 mandates in the poll. Analysts note that higher Arab turnout complicates coalition-building for both the change and right-wing blocs, as Ra'am's projected 5 mandates would leave the change bloc short of a governing majority at 52 mandates.
Small Parties and Future Scenarios
Parties on the electoral threshold, including the Zichka-Hendel list and Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael party, could alter the final Knesset composition depending on whether they clear the 3.25% threshold. With voting behavior indicating high mobilization—80% of coalition voters and 82% of opposition voters certain to cast ballots—the final days of the campaign remain highly fluid.
