Bennett, Eisenkot and Likud received the same news: "The trends have stopped" | "Maariv" pollster analyzes
"Maariv" pollster, Dr. Menachem Lazar, analyzed the results of the latest mandate poll - five mandates are "burned" by parties that do not pass the electoral threshold, and the sector from which a major drama is expected.
"The trends have stopped - both the decline of Naftali Bennett, the rise of Gadi Eisenkot, and the significant decline of Likud," said the "Maariv" pollster, Dr. Menachem Lazar, regarding the mandate poll published on Friday.
"We are seeing mainly fluctuations," he noted. "In the last week, more parties have entered that are positioned in the 'third bloc'. They do not commit firmly to which side they are on. Except for the reservists' party led by Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel, which passes the electoral threshold but has not yet reached a significant safety margin from the threshold, all other lists do not pass the electoral threshold and 'burn' about five mandates."
Dr. Lazar recalled that in the 2022 elections, more than ten mandates were wasted, which determined the result in retrospect. "The question is what will happen in the coming weeks. The Likud primaries will take place next week and then everyone will be in a waiting position ahead of the closing of the lists in September. It is possible that by then we will see more mergers, or additions to large parties," he estimated.
According to him, the big drama in the meantime is expected to come from the Arab sector. "We saw in the poll this week a 'taste' of what happens when three Arab parties unite (Hadash-Ta'al and Balad) and when Ra'am adds a Jewish candidate. In this scenario, they have already risen from 11 to 14 mandates, and this is definitely not the upper limit because everything depends on the voting percentage in Arab society, which in the case of mergers is expected to grow significantly," he explained. "The greater the weight of the Arab parties, the harder it will be for the 'change bloc' to form a government without at least one of them."
Dr. Lazar further noted that Shas continues to tread water around seven mandates. "The decline of Shas reflects dissatisfaction from the two audiences that make up its main voter base: the ultra-Orthodox who are not satisfied with the lack of success in legislating the draft law and the economic damage that followed, and the traditionalists who are angry at the attempt to 'whitewash' draft evasion from the IDF, while they and their family members bear the increasing burden," he estimated.
