Open Race for the 2026 Ballon d'Or Features Six Elite Contenders
The 2026 Ballon d'Or race features six top contenders, including Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, and Lamine Yamal, following a dramatic season heavily influenced by the World Cup.
The most prestigious individual award in global football is just around the corner: the Ballon d'Or ceremony, held in London on October 26, presented by the French magazine France Football. Unlike previous years with one or two clear favorites, this year features no fewer than six top contenders among the 30 finalists.
The World Cup Factor and Open Race
One must remember that this is a World Cup year, and the tournament carries immense weight in the Ballon d'Or race. Lionel Messi in 2023, Luka Modric in 2018, and Fabio Cannavaro in 2006 are prominent examples of this phenomenon. Jude Bellingham, who underperformed at Real Madrid and missed a large part of the season due to injury, is mentioned in predictions as a potential top-ten finisher thanks to his fantastic World Cup campaign, even though England did not reach the final.
The race is wide open this year primarily because no single player clearly outperformed everyone else. Every candidate has strengths alongside glaring weaknesses: some delivered impressive numbers without winning team trophies, while others won silverware without being the driving force behind their teams.
Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal finished the season with 26 goals and 21 assists in all competitions, alongside the Spanish league title, the Spanish Super Cup, and, of course, a World Cup victory. He was named La Liga's best player and was one of the central figures in Barcelona's domestic triumph. The Spanish teenager showed the world once again that an exceptional talent has emerged, dazzling down the flank with wonderful dribbles and sophisticated passes.
The downsides? He was eliminated with Barca from the Champions League in the quarterfinals. An injury in April 2026 meant he missed Barcelona's decisive matches, during which Robert Lewandowski, Marcus Rashford, Raphinha, and Fermin Lopez contributed more. Furthermore, throughout the World Cup, Yamal went missing while other global stars scored in bunches. Winning the tournament bolsters his candidacy, but his personal contribution—one goal against Saudi Arabia and zero assists—fell far short of expectations for a top Ballon d'Or contender.
Ousmane Dembele
Ousmane Dembele, the reigning holder of the award, maintained wonderful form. He scored 26 goals and provided 14 assists across all competitions last season, including the equalizer against Arsenal in the Champions League final, which ended in Paris Saint-Germain's second consecutive title in the competition. The Frenchman's trophy cabinet expanded significantly: Champions League, French Ligue 1, French Super Cup, UEFA Super Cup, and the Intercontinental Cup. Add six goals and two assists at the World Cup, and you have a very worthy candidate.
The downsides? He was less dominant than last year when he scored 35 goals in all competitions (compared to 20 with PSG this season), and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia won the Champions League Player of the Season award. He also went missing during the decisive stages of the World Cup. Still, if you had told Dembele four years ago that he would be contending for a second consecutive Ballon d'Or, he would have shouted at you: Menteurs!
Rodri
Rodri won the FA Cup and League Cup with Manchester City, but his primary argument for the Ballon d'Or stems from the World Cup. Rodri led Spain to victory and was named the tournament's best player, controlling the game, recovering balls, and dictating the tempo. In a national team that conceded just one goal in eight matches, the Spanish midfielder was a key factor in stability and midfield dominance. In the final against Argentina, he completed 101 of 105 passes and won 80 percent of his duels.
The downsides? His season with City was far less impressive than the World Cup. Injuries interrupted his return to fitness, leaving him with only 33 appearances, two goals, and zero assists across club competitions. While defensive midfielder stats do not tell the whole story, absences and inconsistency certainly weaken his candidacy. City failed to win the league and was eliminated from the Champions League in the round of 16 by Real Madrid. The question is clear: do a great World Cup and the best player award suffice to surpass candidates with a complete club season?
Lionel Messi
Yes, even at 39, after eight Ballons d'Or, the flea is once again marked as one of the favorites—or at least a top-five finisher. He scored 44 goals and provided 30 assists in all competitions, won the MLS Cup, and carried Argentina to the World Cup final after scoring eight goals and delivering four assists. During that tournament, he temporarily surpassed Miroslav Klose as the all-time leading scorer in the competition before Kylian Mbappe overtook him.
The downsides? Forty-four goals and 30 assists sound crazy, but compared to other contenders, Messi plays in a vastly weaker league. The level of competition in MLS makes it difficult to compare his numbers to stars in Europe's top leagues, and awarding the Ballon d'Or to a player from this league is challenging. Another prominent flaw is that despite a wonderful World Cup, he simply went quiet in the final against Spain, barely involved as his team succumbed to Spanish dominance.
Kylian Mbappe
Kylian Mbappe is arguably the most interesting name on this list. The French striker delivered a monstrous individual season: 58 goals and 14 assists for Real Madrid and France, finishing as the top scorer in La Liga, the Champions League, and the World Cup—where he also became the tournament's all-time leading scorer. With 25 league goals, 15 in the Champions League, and 10 at the World Cup, Mbappe proved once again that he is a scoring machine.
His downside is obvious: none of this translated into a team trophy. Real Madrid walked away empty-handed, and France stopped in the World Cup semifinals. Supporters argue that such an individual season deserves a Ballon d'Or, and a striker scoring in these quantities should not pay the price for his club and country's failures. However, collective achievements remain a primary criterion, giving his competitors an advantage.
Harry Kane
Harry Kane represents the nearly complete picture. He finished the season with 61 goals and seven assists in 51 appearances for Bayern Munich, alongside the German Bundesliga title, the DFB-Pokal, and the German Super Cup. Kane won the European Golden Shoe with 36 league goals, added 14 in the Champions League, and scored a hat-trick in the cup final against Stuttgart. This was the best scoring season of his career and perhaps his most complete, delightful version to watch.
At the World Cup, he added six goals and an assist, helping England finish third, their best achievement since 1966. The combination of extraordinary numbers, ability, and central role in victories makes him the leading candidate. Yet there is an asterisk: Bayern stopped in the Champions League semifinals against PSG, and England fell at the same stage in the World Cup against Argentina. A monstrous season puts him at the top of the race, but leaves an opening for competitors.
Other Contenders in the Picture
Three other stars are hard to ignore. Michael Olise delivered a stellar season with 27 goals and 35 assists for Bayern and France, winning domestic trophies and setting a record with seven assists at the World Cup. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia was instrumental in PSG's consecutive Champions League title, winning the competition's Player of the Season award with 10 goals and six assists, though Georgia's absence from the World Cup hurts his bid. Finally, Erling Haaland posted 58 goals and 11 assists for City and Norway, reaching the World Cup quarterfinals, but without a league title or Champions League crown, placing him ahead of the elite remains difficult.
