Before the elections: Trump must stop Netanyahu | Gershon Baskin

Jared Kushner's visit to Israel was intended primarily to deal with Gaza. But he should have arrived with a much broader message from President Donald Trump.

The immediate American goal should not be to solve all outstanding issues between Israel and the Palestinians before the elections. That is not realistic. Nor should it be expected that Washington will complete the regional peace process it seeks to promote in the coming weeks.

The task now is simpler and more urgent: not to allow Benjamin Netanyahu and his government to create irreversible facts, ignite additional fronts, and destroy the possibility of a regional political move before Israelis go to the polls.

The Trump administration is trying to promote its initiative for Gaza: transferring civil governance to a technocratic Palestinian body, an Israeli withdrawal linked to security arrangements, and the reconstruction of the Strip. Netanyahu has publicly opposed important components of the plan, especially the sequence of actions between an Israeli withdrawal and the disarmament of Hamas.

But Gaza is only part of the problem.

The situation in the West Bank is deteriorating rapidly. The expansion of settlements has reached unprecedented dimensions, and settler violence has intensified greatly. In Qusra, IDF soldiers recently clashed with settlers as they tried to dismantle an outpost established in front of Palestinian homes. The settlers resisted, the army retreated, and Palestinian residents reported that for days they were subjected to threats and terror. In practice, the Israeli army repeatedly provides protection to violent settlers instead of protecting the Palestinian population from them.

But Qusra is not the story. It is a symptom.

The real problem is that the settlement movement, backed by powerful ministers in Netanyahu's government, is promoting a clear political project: to make the establishment of a Palestinian state impossible by creating facts on the ground that cannot be undone.

Members of Netanyahu's government repeatedly create provocations that could lead to a violent Palestinian outbreak and provide justification for a large-scale Israeli military operation in the West Bank. Netanyahu knows that a broad security flare-up on the eve of the elections could return the public agenda to the field where he feels most comfortable — security and war.

Trump must understand that this is no longer just a Palestinian problem. It has become an American strategic problem.

Trump wants a broad regional settlement. He wants to deepen Israel's integration into the Arab world, promote normalization with Saudi Arabia, bring Arab countries to invest in the reconstruction of Gaza and participate in new security arrangements, and create a Palestinian governing alternative to Hamas. He wants a Middle East that is managed more through trade, investment, and cooperation and less through constant war.

The settlement movement and its allies in the Israeli government want something completely different.

They want permanent Israeli control over the West Bank, continued expansion of settlements, further displacement of Palestinians from their lands, and ultimately the elimination of any viable territorial basis for Palestinian independence.

These two visions cannot coexist.

The United States cannot ask Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab countries to participate in a new regional order, while simultaneously allowing the Israeli government to strengthen forces whose stated goal is to prevent any Palestinian political future.

Washington also cannot tell the Palestinians that they must choose a political alternative to Hamas, while Israel proves to them every day that non-violent Palestinian politics leads nowhere.

If we want the Palestinians to reject Hamas, they must have a credible alternative to choose from.

This does not mean that a permanent agreement must be reached tomorrow. It means that the possibility of reaching it must be preserved.

Therefore, until the elections in Israel, Trump must set a simple rule for Netanyahu:

Do not ignite new fires.

First, Netanyahu must restrain the settlers.

No more statements of condemnation after attacks. No more promises that the police will "investigate." Real enforcement is required.

Israelis who attack Palestinians must be arrested and prosecuted. Palestinian villages must be protected. Illegal outposts must be evacuated. Ministers must not be allowed to turn ideological takeover of lands into government policy.

The state must make it clear that there is one law for everyone.

Israel cannot demand from the Palestinians "one authority and one weapon," and at the same time allow armed Israelis to act as if the law does not apply to them.

There is no comparison here between settlers and Hamas. Hamas committed the atrocities of October 7 and deliberately harmed Israeli civilians. The issue here is a different principle: only the state is allowed to use force in the name of the law.

A functioning state cannot allow private ideological groups to use violence to determine borders or create political facts.

Second, Trump must prevent Netanyahu from unnecessarily escalating the situation in Gaza before the elections.

The future of Gaza has not yet been decided. The American plan is still under negotiation. There are difficult questions regarding an Israeli withdrawal, security arrangements, Palestinian governance, reconstruction, and Hamas's weapons.

It is possible and necessary to continue discussing all of these.

What must not happen is another Israeli military escalation that will create new facts, expand Israeli control, harm emerging Palestinian institutions, or make withdrawal even more difficult after the elections.

The goal in the coming weeks should be stabilization.

Hold the lines.

Stop provocations.

Build mechanisms that can allow for a different reality later.

And then let the Israelis vote.

Third, the same policy of restraint must also apply to Lebanon.

The danger of renewing the war there is real. The existing arrangement is fragile, and any significant escalation could quickly slide into a wider conflict.

Israel has legitimate security concerns regarding Hezbollah. But a legitimate security concern does not make every military action a correct strategic step.

In the coming weeks, neither Israel nor Hezbollah must be allowed to drag the region into total war again.

This is exactly where the power of the United States is required.

Trump does not need Netanyahu to make peace before the elections.

He needs Netanyahu not to destroy the possibility of making peace after them.

Israel is going to elections when Netanyahu is simultaneously the Prime Minister, a leader in wartime, and a candidate seeking to remain in power. Every decision concerning Gaza, Lebanon, or the West Bank will necessarily be examined also through the lens of internal politics.

Therefore, Washington has a clear interest in preventing Netanyahu's election considerations from dictating American strategy in the Middle East.

After the elections, it will be possible to re-examine the whole picture.

Who will form the government? What coalition will be possible? What will the Israeli public want after three years of war? What will be possible in Gaza? What Palestinian leadership will be able to emerge? What will Saudi Arabia be willing to do? And how much will it be possible to promote regional normalization?

These are questions for the day after the elections.

But if the weeks before them are used to expand settlements, continue turning a blind eye to settler violence, ignite a new flare-up in Gaza, or return to a deterioration into war in Lebanon, the starting point after the elections will be much worse.

Therefore, Trump's message to Netanyahu should be short and clear:

Restrain the settlers.

Stop unilateral moves in the West Bank.

Do not re-ignite Gaza.

Do not allow Lebanon to return to war.

And do not create irreversible facts during an election campaign.

After the Israelis choose their next government, the United States will be able to re-examine the entire regional strategy.

Until then, the task is to preserve the possibility for a different future.

Trump does not need to achieve peace before the elections. He needs to ensure that Netanyahu does not make it impossible after them.